Strategy Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend 2.0

The over / under 2.5 market is very popular among bettors and not with a lack of reason. Its odds generally close to two make it very attractive and easy to follow. In this article we discover a winning strategy for this market with excellent results. Do you want to discover how to get the best out of over 2.5 bets? Find out below.

Betaminic is a website that has a free online tool called Betamin Builder for analysing soccer statistics and historical bookmaker odds. By analysing past data of over 100,000 matches, winning patterns can be found. For example, there are some leagues where backing over 2.5 goals in certain conditions leads to profit long term. Betaminic’s tool, the Betamin Builder, allows you to find those value patterns. There is also a way to have future picks from those profitable trends emailed to you so that you can bet on them. Basically, if you can find what betting system would have made profit in the past, it gives you a promising strategy to follow in the future. You can sign up for free here and see for yourself.

Summary of the results

These are the results obtained after analyzing the strategy “Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend 2.0” using historical data between April 2012 to February 2017

Total BetsBets WonBets LostAv. OddsNet Profit!!!Yield!!!
5082782302.29+122.66+24.14%


Description of the Strategy

The average odds for the bet type “Over/Under 2.5 goals” for most games is even; that means, odds usually set around 2.00 (1/1) for each bet, without deducting the fee or commission for the bookmaker. Regarding the probability, that implies about 50% chance. Following this statement, we can think that after three games in a row finished under 2.5 goals, the market odds for the fourth match to end over 2.5 goals could be higher than their real value, influenced by a recent streak. The system wants to take advantage of those odds (more information about this concept by clicking here)

The concept of this strategy is based on the break of that streak and taking advantage of overvalued odds due to the existing streak. We search teams where the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded), and the opponent team with the same condition, the last three games ended under 2.5 goals too.

Therefore, the target of this betting system is to search games where both teams with the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded). If that condition is fulfilled, we place an Over 2.5 goals bet in the fourth match.

For this strategy, we are using opening odds to select the matches and closing odds to calculate the P/L  mainly for two main reasons.  On the one hand, using opening odds it is possible to get the picks of the strategy well in advance because the opening odds are known enough time before the start of the match. And, on the other hand, the P/L of the system is based on closing odds to allow the figures to be as realistic as possible. Nevertheless, the final results of the strategy do not differ in any great if we take the opening odds to estimate the profit and loss.

Reasons to create this new version 2.0

Note that this is a new enhanced version of the original strategy “Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend”.

We take a look at the reasons why we decided to build a new strategy based on the original.

  1. We received feedback from our users regarding receiving the picks much further in advance. As the conditions were based on the closing odds, it was not possible to send all the picks earlier, because some games don’t reach the odds required until a couple of hours before the match starts. We understand sometimes there is no time to place a bet if you receive the picks a few hours before the game, besides the trouble to keep an eye on the odds movement. Therefore, now the follow-up is more convenient, whether you are subscribed to the strategies or follow the system by your own.
  2. When the first strategy was published, we only had data of some leagues. Now, we have more leagues data available.
  3. Most of the games selected on the original strategy are included in the new version, and also more picks will be triggered by the new system.
  4. After analysing the figures of the new version, they show better results compared to the original one, more bets and similar yield.

The changes of the new strategy compared to the previous one are as follows:

  • The strategy will use opening odds instead of closing odds to select the games of the strategy, due to the fact that the opening odds are known well in advance.
  • We have added new leagues to the strategy that help to improve the overall results, which is a good indication of the health of the strategy.
  • The rest of the filters and conditions remain unchanged.

Strategy Results by year

Here you can see a breakdown of the results by year.

YearBetsNet ProfitYield
201242+18.21+43%
201389+16.29+18%
2014123+40.31+33%
2015130+19.83+15%
2016108+19.23+18%
201716+8.79+55%
TOTAL508+122.66+24%

The table shows that the strategy has consistent results over the period. There have been years with a higher yield than others, but it generally remains constant.

System Parameters

These are the filters or conditions used for this system:

  • Leagues. We have tested this strategy with 37 leagues.
  • Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, opening odds to select the games and closing odds to calculate the P/L.
  • Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
  • Date range. From April 2012 to February 2017.
  • P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals, when the conditions are fulfilled.
  • Home Team conditions. The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Away Team conditions.  The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Odds for Over 2.5 goals. Opening odds must be included in the interval 2.10 – 2.40.
  • The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places an Over 2.5 bet on the fourth match.
  • Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 24% after 508 bets matched in the strategy.
Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%

 

Win/Lost Bets Ratio

For this betting system, we obtain a 55% ratio of winning bets. There lies the key to the success of the strategy, combined with the selected odds interval.

Total betsRatio
Bets Won27855%
Bets Lost23045%

The past results show that more than half of the games ended up as winning bets. If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.

Would you like to receive the Picks of the strategy?

It’s very easy, you just have to follow some very simple steps:

  1. Register on our website, click here to go directly.
  2. Buy the package you want to receive the picks of the strategy. Click here to select a plan. 
  3. Access our Betamin Builder tool.
  4. Go to “Public Strategies” in the Main Menu.
  5. Activate the option to receive the Picks by clicking on the email icon, which you will find to the right of the strategy “Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia”.
  6. You don’t have to do anything else. You will start receiving the picks in your email account as soon as the games fulfill the conditions of the strategy (check your SPAM folder).

If you have any doubts in the process, you can watch the video tutorial that we have prepared to follow the public strategies. Click here to access the tutorial.


Discover 8 new profitable football betting systems based on Big Data clicking here!!!



Table #1. Analysis of the results by League

** Please note that the table only shows 10 results by default, you can change that in the “show entries” box to display all results.

Strategy Over 2.5 goals: against the trend 2.0 - League Analysis -

The system obtains a positive result, a 24% yield after 508 bets during five years. As you can check, the system is profitable for most of the football leagues tested. This strategy doesn’t trigger many bets in every league because the conditions are not easy to get as well as the odds filters (between 2.10 and 2.40). But adding up the bets for all the leagues, we obtain a significant number of games.

You can display the chart of the leagues:

 

Table #2. Analysis of the results by Odds range

Strategy Over 2.5 goals 2.0 - Odds range -

If we analyse the results by odds range, we can confirm that the system works for every interval, where the yield keeps constant at each odds and for every year. Most of the years the strategy is profitable for each range, which gives us the confidence to trust the system.

In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.

 

Table #3. Detail of the football games included in the strategy 

Here you can find the detail of all the past football games that fulfil with the filters and conditions of the betting system.

All the matches and results are the outcome of the strategy previously explained in a transparent manner. Errors and omissions excepted, these are the past games that comply with the requirements of the strategy.

Football Matches included in the Over 2.5 goals 2.0 Strategy

This chart shows the progress of the results by date.

 

In the chart above, you can see that the strategy has hardly a big drawdown, the greatest loss is about ten points, which is not important. It is true that the last year the system only made 5 points profit, although this is not a significant point if we look at the big scenario.

Here, the system doesn’t have a long negative streak, so the drawdown for the period studied seems not hard to face. But we cannot assure it will continue that way in the future. Most of the betting systems suffer a negative streak; that’s something you have to get used to if you want to succeed in the world of the sports betting.

Drawdown

Why is the drawdown so important?

When you start designing a new strategy, one of the key factors of a risk assessment is the maximum drawdown of the system. If you develop a strategy making a profit overall, it’s vital to calculate its max drawdown. It will help you to estimate the risk you are willing to assume. It is so important the maximum amount of loss as well as the length of that period.

The study of the maximum drawdown has to be compared with the total profit of the strategy to establish the risk of the system. If you calculate the amount and duration of the worst losses of the past results, you will be able to identify at any moment whether the behaviour of the strategy is indeed withing the normal limits. That will help you to control your emotional situation for losses streaks.

We are going to calculate the maximum drawdowns for this strategy.

Estimated level of risk: LOW.

YearMax DDFromToLength
2012-3.0011.08.1201.09.1221 days
2013-5.6402.10.1324.11.1353 days
2014-6.0020.09.1405.10.1415 days
2015-11.7208.10.1508.11.1531 days
2016-8.8217.09.1617.12.1691 days
MAX DD-11.7208.10.1508.11.1531 days

 

P-value

For this strategy, the Approx. P-value = 0.0001, wich means we have very strong evidence that the results for this systems are not a matter of only luck.

For those who might be unfamiliar with the p-value concept, here you can find a brief explanation: The P-value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H0) of a study question is true – the definition of ‘extreme’ depends on how the hypothesis is being tested. P is also described in terms of rejecting H0 when it is actually true, however, it is not a direct probability of this state.

P > 0.10
No evidence against the null hypothesis. The data appear to be consistent with the null hypothesis.
0.05 < P < 0.10Weak evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
0.01 < P < 0.05
Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
0.001 < P < 0.01
Strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the
alternative.
P < 0.001
Very strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.


Conclusions

As you can check, this system makes a profit for a high number of leagues, that shows that this strategy is pretty solid, because the conditions and filters are adjusted correctly for a large number of different football leagues.  

To sum up, we think this strategy can be profitable for a long time, making small corrections to keep the good result. But as you know, this strategy is based 100% on statistical data. As we have mentioned many times, this kind of strategies are studied with historical data; nobody can be sure this system will continue making profits in the future.

The results obtained prove that the strategy remains stable for years, without significant drawdowns and also many leagues are perfectly matched with the conditions established.

As we usually advise, we recommend you not to pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.

As we said before, if you want to propose a particular betting system to be analysed, please send us an email to support@betaminic.com or using our contact form, we will be glad to help you.

Minimum suggested odds

We will send the picks by email with “minimum suggested odds”, that means you will have a reference point to place your bets. The calculations are performed to obtain a theoretical yield of 5% betting on the minimum odds, always based on past data. It means that if you had always bet using the min odds, you would have achieved a 5% yield with historical data of the strategy. However, we continually advise opening accounts with different bookmakers to choose the highest odds available.

Would you like to receive the Picks of the strategy?

It’s very easy, you just have to follow some very simple steps:

  1. Register on our website, click here to go directly.
  2. Buy the package you want to receive the picks of the strategy. Click here to select a plan. 
  3. Access our Betamin Builder tool.
  4. Go to “Public Strategies” in the Main Menu.
  5. Activate the option to receive the Picks by clicking on the email icon, which you will find to the right of the strategy “Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia”.
  6. You don’t have to do anything else. You will start receiving the picks in your email account as soon as the games fulfill the conditions of the strategy (check your SPAM folder).

If you have any doubts in the process, you can watch the video tutorial that we have prepared to follow the public strategies. Click here to access the tutorial.

Discover 8 new profitable football betting systems based on Big Data clicking here

Read more about the free Betaminic Public Strategy here.

Comments 3

Jerre

September 24, 2017

Hi What do you mean with : scored + conceded. Do you mean that the game must be under 2,5 and they had scored at least one goal? Thanks

Javier Paniagua

September 25, 2017

Hi Jerre. Thanks for your interest shown in the strategy. Yes, we mean that last 3 games for home and away team finished under 2.5 goals (0, 1 or 2 goals).
Thanks!

DEYAN

May 17, 2018

1.Home:Over 3.5 last game
2.Away:Over 3.5 last game
3.Last match between the two team Over 3.5
Bet on Over 2.5 Odds 1.70-2.4