Proposals on the Betting System Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend

Hi everyone,

First of all, we would like to express our gratitude for the excellent reception the strategy  “Betting System Over 2.5: Bet against the trend” has received from all of you. One of our most important objectives, when we decided to build this blog, was to meet punters and traders and of course exchange knowledge. After publishing this system, we received fascinating feedback from many people via Twitter, Web and Email. Many readers liked the approach of the system, but we also received some comments regarding the sample size is not enough to ensure that’s a strong foundation to build a strategy. All points of views are welcome, even though we have different opinions about a particular subject. We found a very enriching experience to debate the system with our readers.

As mentioned on many occasions, we are committed to publishing all betting systems that could be appealing to most of our readers, although they might not be as profitable as others. In connection with that, we received some interesting proposals about the Over 2.5 System. We have developed two systems with those ideas and wanted to share the results with you.

Strategy #1: Betting on Under 2.5 goals after three Over 2.5 games in a row  

We received two interesting Tweets from NRL Prophets @NRLProphets and Apuestas Marc @DMApuestas asking for the opposite strategy, betting on the Under 2.5 market after three overs in a row.

 

As requested, we want to show the results obtained for that strategy. Thanks, NRL Prophets and Apuestas Marc for your contribution to the Over 2.5 system debate, we appreciate it.

The first thing we would like to clarify is that we will keep the same parameters as the original system. In fact, we could adjust some conditions, such as odds, to optimise the profits, but we would rather not modifying any filter at all, and thus you can compare the final results more clearly.

System Parameters

These are the filters or conditions used for this system:

  • Leagues. We have tested this system with 22 leagues.
  • Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, pre-match.
  • Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
  • Date range. From July 2012 to 30/11/2016.
  • P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Under 2.5 goals, when the conditions are fulfilled.
  • Home Team conditions. The last three games played overall finished over 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Away Team conditions.  The last three games played overall finished over 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Odds for Under 2.5 goals. Odds must be included in the interval 1.70 – 2.40.
  • The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places an Under 2.5 bet on the fourth match.
  • Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 6% after 244 bets matched in the strategy.

Analysis of the results by League

Under 2.5 System Results - League Analysis -

The system obtains a positive result, a 6% yield after 244 bets during more than four years. Unlike the original system, you can find eight leagues with negative results. Besides, there are fewer football games matched in this strategy.

For this betting system, we obtain a 56 % ratio of winning bets, similar to the previous system.

Total betsRatio
Bets Won13756%
Bets Lost10744%

You can display the chart of the leagues:

Evolution of the P/L

This chart shows the progress of the results by date.

As you can see, the strategy suffers a very long negative streak from April 2015 to the current season. We are talking about 18 months of losses, from the highest peak, that would be tough to bear, in fact, a long drawdown makes you think if the system can be profitable again. That is the most difficult process when you are following a particular strategy.

Conclusions

The system logic for both strategies is very close, but with different results. Although both systems make a profit overall, the Under 2.5 system has fewer games matched, so the sample size is smaller, 244 bets instead of 472. You could also merge both systems as a single strategy; that is your choice. We will keep following the original system at least for this season to check the progress of the results.

 

Strategy #2: Betting on Over 2.5 goals after two Under 2.5 games in a row  

We received another interesting Tweet from Javier Martín, @cardiffenio. He comments that perhaps the sample size is not big enough and suggests to study a strategy considering two Unders in a row instead of three, and that way the size will be larger and the system would be more reliable, in case it is still profitable.

We think it’s a reasonable proposal to be considered, and we want to share the results with you. Thanks Javier for your input on this matter. We appreciate that very much.

As said before, we want to maintain the same filters and conditions to show the figures without alterations.

System Parameters

These are the filters or conditions used for this system:

  • Leagues. We have tested this system with 22 leagues.
  • Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, pre-match.
  • Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
  • Date range. From July 2012 to 30/11/2016.
  • P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals, when the conditions are fulfilled.
  • Home Team conditions. The last two games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Away Team conditions.  The last two games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Odds for Over 2.5 goals. Odds must be included in the interval 1.70 – 2.40.
  • The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places an Over 2.5 bet on the third match.
  • Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 2.53% after 1752 bets matched in the strategy.

Analysis of the results by League

Over 2.5 System Results, Last 2 games - League Analysis -

The system gets a positive result, a 2.53% yield after 1752 bets during more than four years. If you check the results, you can see there are four leagues with a high negative return, Scotland Championship, England National League, Denmark Superliga and Argentina Primera División. If you removed only those leagues, the final yield would increase to the double. You can see what leagues are the most profitable ones and compare the results.

For this betting system, we obtain a 49 % ratio of winning bets.

Total betsRatio
Bets Won86549%
Bets Lost88751%

If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.

You can display the chart of the leagues:

Analysis of the results by Odds range

Over 2.5 System Results, Last 2 games - Odds range -

If we analyse the results by odds range, we can see that the highest profit is made from 2.00 to 2.40, same as the original system,  with 1227 bets and a profit of +56.23, that means about 5% yield.

In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.

Evolution of the P/L

This chart shows the progress of the results by date.

Conclusions

The system has constant highs and lows for most of the period studied. From October to December 2015, the profit accumulated is reduced by half. That is not the best scenario you can find if you follow a system. The sample size is bigger than the original, but we think that the return obtained is not high enough to make a consistent profit during that term.

We wanted to share the results to this proposal with you.  The system could be adjusted to make a higher profit, but this is not the purpose of this article.

We intended to show you the results of the suggestions proposed by our readers regarding the original strategy.

We hope you found useful this post and will continue publishing more studies of this nature.

As we said before, if you want to propose a particular betting system to be analysed, please send us an email to support@betaminic.com or using our contact form, we will be glad to help you.

Thanks!

Comments 2

luisbang

September 7, 2017

Excellen work.
Have you tried running de strategy bet over 2.5 goals after 3 straight over games just for one team?
Thanks.

Javier Paniagua

September 8, 2017

Hi luisbang,

First of all thanks for your comments, I appreciate it. Yes, we tried your proposal, the strategy is still profitable, but with a higher Drawdown and a low Yield.
We are going to launch soon a tool where you will be able to test the strategy you proposed and many more in minutes. I’m sure it will be a very useful tool for your betting.

Kind regards!

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