New Strategy: Backing the Draw
Betaminic is a website that has a free online tool called Betamin Builder for analysing soccer statistics and historical bookmaker odds. By analysing past data of over 100,000 matches, winning patterns can be found. For example, there are some leagues where backing over 2.5 goals in certain conditions leads to profit long term. Betaminic’s tool, the Betamin Builder, allows you to find those value patterns. There is also a way to have future picks from those profitable trends emailed to you so that you can bet on them. Basically, if you can find what betting system would have made profit in the past, it gives you a promising strategy to follow in the future. You can sign up for free here and see for yourself.
Would you like to receive the picks of the strategy?
It’s very easy, you just have to follow some very simple steps:
- Register on our website, click here to go directly.
- Buy the package you want to receive the picks of the strategy. Click here to select a plan.
- Access our Betamin Builder tool.
- Go to “Public Strategies” in the Main Menu.
- Activate the option to receive the Picks by clicking on the email icon, which you will find to the right of the strategy “Backing the Draw / Apostando al Empate”.
- You don’t have to do anything else. You will start receiving the picks in your email account as soon as the games fulfill the conditions of the strategy (check your SPAM folder).
If you have any doubts about the process, you can watch the video tutorial that we have prepared to follow the public strategies. Click here to access the tutorial.
Detail of the strategy
What follows is the strategy tested with the highest number of bets so far. That, besides the good results regarding profit and yield, make it one of the most solid strategies we have ever developed. Bet on the draw is not a very common choice, and we want to show you a profitable system which you can take advantage.
Check the details of the stunning results below!
Summary of the results
|Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Av. Odds||Net Profit!!!||Yield!!!|
Description of the Strategy
Most of the systems are designed to find value on the favourite or underdog teams, but not on the draw. Besides, it’s not easy to see many punters who specialise in this market, because there has been a tendency to think that the value is usually found in the home or away team odds.
A few months ago we published a study called “Last 3 games without Draw”, and after making significant changes and improvements, a new strategy has been created with outstanding results.
The underlying analysis of this research has three main factors:
- We look for games where the draw odds are within the normal range. Football matches with a clear favourite team are discarded because the general results get worse.
- The selection of the leagues is also a key factor for the strategy. We chose the leagues with the best ratio of draws during the last years.
- The combination of the two previous points leads us to an essential requirement for the success of the strategy. Games selected must include teams with no draws over the last three games. We expect the bookies set the odds a bit higher than normal, the small impact of this rise will be decisive for the overall profit.
Due to the conditions required for the selection of the games, the system will produce a considerable number of bets. We expect at least one draw in three games to keep the excellent results obtained.
What we would like to say is that the development of this strategy has led many hours of work and study, like the rest of the strategies. To build a system to bet on the draw it is not an easy task, but after analysing thousands of data, a profitable system has been created with stunning results.
For this strategy, we are using opening odds to select the matches and closing odds to calculate the P/L mainly for two main reasons. On the one hand, you will receive the picks of the strategy well in advance because the opening odds are known beforehand. And, on the other hand, the P/L of the system is based on closing odds to allow the figures to be as realistic as possible. Nevertheless, the final results of the strategy do not differ in any great if we take the opening odds to estimate the profit and loss.
Minimum suggested odds
We will send the picks by email with “minimum suggested odds”, that means you will have a reference point to place your bets. The calculations are performed to obtain a theoretical yield of 5% betting on the minimum odds, always based on past data. It means that if you had always bet using the min odds, you would have achieved a 5% yield with historical data of the strategy. However, we continually advise opening accounts with different bookmakers to choose the highest odds available.
Strategy Results by year
Here you can see a breakdown of the results by year.
The table shows that the strategy has consistent results over the period. As you can see, the system generates a large number of picks every season and over the months (you can check below in the detail of the football games), due to the leagues selected. There have been years with a higher yield than others, but it generally remains constant.
These are the filters or conditions used for this system:
- Leagues. We have tested this strategy with 32 leagues.
- Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, opening odds to select the games and closing odds to calculate the P/L.
- Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
- Date range. From March 2012 to February 2017.
- P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on the Draw, when the conditions are fulfilled.
- Home Team conditions. More than two games with no Draws overall (home & away).
- Away Team conditions. More than two games with no Draws overall (home & away).
- Odds for Draw. Opening odds must be included in the interval 3.20 – 3.56.
- The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places a Draw bet on the fourth match.
- Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 16% after 2647 bets matched in the strategy.
|Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%|
Win/Lost Bets Ratio
For this betting system, we obtain a 34% ratio of winning bets. If the system can maintain that winning bets ratio, it will make a profit in the long term.
The past results show that one in three bets are won, and as the interval odds is above 3.00, that’s the key to the success of the system. If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.
Table #1. Analysis of the results by League
** Please note that the table only shows 10 results by default, you can change that in the “show entries” box to display all results.
Strategy Backing the Draw - League Analysis -
|wdt_ID||Country||League||DIV||Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Average Odds||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|Country||League||DIV||Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Average Odds||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|∑ = 957||∑ = 329||∑ = 628||∑ = 28.70||∑ = 26.84||∑ = 18.39||∑ = 36.06||∑ = 46.29||∑ = 1.51||∑ = 157.79|
The system obtains a positive result, a 16% yield after 2647 bets during five years. As you can check, the system is profitable for most of the football leagues tested. This strategy triggers a high number of picks all the months, even during the summer.
As we stated on previous occasions, all the strategies need to be continuously reviewed and analysed in depth from time to time to ensure all the parameters continue working as expected.
You can display the chart of the leagues:
Table #2. Analysis of the results by Odds range
Strategy Backing the Draw - Odds range -
|wdt_ID||Odds range||Bets||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|1||3.20 - 3.25||294||4.80||10.93||6.00||7.77||8.11||-7.78||29.83||10|
|2||3.26 - 3.30||292||5.38||8.86||31.38||17.06||27.29||2.35||92.32||32|
|3||3.31 - 3.35||287||10.83||3.04||9.98||4.05||-5.42||-1.57||20.91||7|
|4||3.36 - 3.40||500||8.92||8.67||25.06||4.13||-16.73||4.20||34.25||7|
|5||3.41 - 3.45||334||-1.79||-9.25||36.60||7.66||15.18||6.25||54.65||16|
|6||3.46 - 3.50||412||-0.26||10.59||16.65||44.75||5.72||11.05||88.50||21|
|7||3.51 - 3.56||528||10.31||43.33||-14.67||22.25||32.62||-1.91||91.93||17|
|Odds range||Bets||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|∑ = 2,647||∑ = 38.19||∑ = 76.17||∑ = 111.00||∑ = 107.67||∑ = 66.77||∑ = 12.59||∑ = 412.39|
If we analyse the results by odds range, you can check that the profit is divided almost equally for each interval. The odds selected are chosen to achieve the best results, we could extend the odds range, but the number of bets generated by the system is already large enough, and besides the yield would be lower.
In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.
Table #3. Detail of the football games included in the strategy
Here you can find the detail of all the past football games that fulfil with the filters and conditions of the betting system.
All the matches and results are the outcome of the strategy previously explained in a transparent manner. Errors and omissions excepted, these are the past games that comply with the requirements of the strategy.
Football Matches included in the Backing the Draw Strategy
|wdt_ID||Date||Country||League||DIV||Home Team||Away Team||Full Time Home Goals||Full Time Away Goals||Full Time Result (H/D/A)||Opening Odds||Closing Odds||P/L||Accum.|
|Date||Country||League||DIV||Home Team||Away Team||Full Time Home Goals||Full Time Away Goals||Full Time Result (H/D/A)||Opening Odds||Closing Odds||P/L||Accum.|
|∑ = 0.67|
This chart shows the progress of the results by date.
As you can see, the profits increase in a steady way over the years. There are months where the results were very flat, although that’s a very common thing to find in the long term. We want to emphasise the importance of the drawdown when analysing a strategy in a comprehensive manner.
Why is the drawdown so important?
When you start designing a new strategy, one of the key factors of a risk assessment is the maximum drawdown of the system. If you develop a strategy making a profit overall, it’s vital to calculate its max drawdown. It will help you to estimate the risk you are willing to assume. It is so important the maximum amount of loss as well as the length of that period.
The study of the maximum drawdown has to be compared with the total profit of the strategy to establish the risk of the system. If you calculate the amount and duration of the worst losses of the past results, you will be able to identify at any moment whether the behaviour of the strategy is indeed withing the normal limits. That will help you to control your emotional situation for losses streaks.
We are going to calculate the maximum drawdowns for this strategy.
Estimated level of risk: UPPER-MEDIUM.
|MAX DD||-26.04||04.12.15||13.02.16||71 days|
For this strategy, the Approx. P-value = 0.0001, wich means we have very strong evidence that the results for this systems are not a matter of only luck.
For those who might be unfamiliar with the p-value concept, here you can find a brief explanation: The P-value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H0) of a study question is true – the definition of ‘extreme’ depends on how the hypothesis is being tested. P is also described in terms of rejecting H0 when it is actually true, however, it is not a direct probability of this state.
|P > 0.10|
No evidence against the null hypothesis. The data appear to be consistent with the null hypothesis.
|0.05 < P < 0.10||Weak evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.|
|0.01 < P < 0.05|
Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
|0.001 < P < 0.01|
Strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the
|P < 0.001|
Very strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
If we look at the past results, the strategy makes high profits with low risk, that’s the perfect combination for any system you want to build. As we repeated hundreds of times, this kind of strategies are studied with historical data; nobody can be sure this system will continue making profits in the future.
Another plus point is the large number of picks triggered by the system keeping the yield, which means this strategy seems to be very reliable.
The maximum drawdown is small compared to the general results, so the system didn’t suffer long negative streaks to face.
The results obtained prove that the strategy remains stable for years, without significant drawdowns and also many leagues are perfectly matched with the conditions established.
The study is based on Pinnacle odds, but there is not very much difference between Pinnacle and other bookmakers, such as Bet365 for draw odds, that means this strategy has a similar yield using other bookies.
We think this system can be very profitable in the long term, but as you already know, cycles can change, and past results do not guarantee future performances. This strategy, like of all them, will be reviewed periodically to make small enhancements to improve the end result.
We remind you that all the picks of this strategy will have “minimum suggested odds”, so it will be more convenient for you to have a reference price for your bet.
As we usually advise, we recommend you not to pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.