Betting Strategy: To swim against the tide
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Detail of the strategy
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Summary of the results
|Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Av. Odds||Net Profit!!!||Yield!!!|
Description of the Strategy
As the title of the article implies, this strategy will trigger bets against the public opinion. We are looking at the Home Teams with poor performance in the last games that play against Teams that come from a better form. The bookies will set a higher price on the Home Teams, and we think that there can be a value on the odds and want to take advantage of that.
Although those Teams come from a negative record in the last games, Teams with poor form can give the surprise at any time. We believe that the high odds set from the bookies are “value odds” and can help to build a profitable strategy.
We want to warn you that this kind of strategy is not suitable for users expecting overnight results, as one in four bets is a winning bet. As you can see in the summary above, the Bets Won ratio is low and the average odds very high, so we ask you to be patient. The historical results are very successful, but in case you decide to follow the strategy, please, keep in mind that a high percentage of the bets will be lost. However, the past results of this study show us that the winning bets not only reduce the accumulated losses of the strategy but becoming it profitable in the long term.
For this strategy, we are using opening odds to select the matches and closing odds to calculate the P/L mainly for two main reasons. On the one hand, you will receive the picks of the strategy well in advance due to the fact that the opening odds are known beforehand. And, on the other hand, the P/L of the system is based on closing odds to allow the figures to be as realistic as possible. Nevertheless, the final results of the strategy do not differ in any great if we take the opening odds to estimate the profit and loss. We will send the picks by email with “minimum suggested odds”, that means you will have a reference point to place your bets.
Finally, you have to consider that sometimes the system will place bets against the giant clubs in their respective leagues, and in those cases, we are waiting to win a few games to make a general profit. Again, we remind that to help you taking a decision in case you decide to follow the strategy with us.
Strategy Results by year
Here you can see a breakdown of the results by year.
The table shows that the strategy has consistent results over the period. There have been years with a higher yield than others, but it generally remains constant.
These are the filters or conditions used for this system:
- Leagues. We have tested this strategy with 32 leagues.
- Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, opening odds to select the games and closing odds to calculate the P/L.
- Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
- Date range. From April 2012 to 15/02/2017.
- P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on the Home Team to win, when the conditions are fulfilled.
- Home Team conditions. No wins at least in the last four games played overall.
- Away Team conditions. At least one win in the last two games played overall.
- Odds for Home Team. Opening odds must be greater than or equal to 3.30 (decimal odds).
- The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places a bet on the fifth match on the Home Team to win.
- Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 26% after 1,465 bets matched in the strategy.
|Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%|
Win/Lost Bets Ratio
For this betting system, we obtain a 26% ratio of winning bets. This is because the odds selected in the strategy are very high.
You should consider all these factors explained above before taking a decision. If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.
Table #1. Analysis of the results by League
** Please note that the table only shows 10 results by default, you can change that in the “show entries” box to display all results.
Strategy To Swim against the tide - League Analysis -
|wdt_ID||Country||League||DIV||Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Average Odds||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|Country||League||DIV||Total Bets||Bets Won||Bets Lost||Average Odds||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|∑ = 505||∑ = 137||∑ = 368||∑ = 12.89||∑ = -0.28||∑ = 47.37||∑ = 17.81||∑ = 7.45||∑ = 18.26||∑ = 103.50|
The system obtains a positive result, a 26% yield after 1,465 bets during five years. As you can check, the system is profitable for most of the football leagues tested. Spanish La Liga scores the best result with a Net Profit of +49.47, closely followed by Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) and Russia Premier League. Only seven leagues have negative results for this study.
You can display the chart of the leagues:
Table #2. Analysis of the results by Odds range
Strategy To swim against the tide - Odds range -
|wdt_ID||Odds range||Bets||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|1||3.3 - 3.70||348||-4.46||28.77||51.59||27.79||-7.90||14.73||110.52||32|
|2||3.71 - 4.20||285||-1.54||24.38||6.58||-0.27||16.13||-2.34||42.94||15|
|3||4.21 - 5.00||276||16.50||22.13||16.25||15.92||17.90||3.92||92.62||34|
|4||5.01 - 6.00||163||14.17||-6.12||21.94||-0.65||-1.20||7.69||35.83||22|
|5||6.01 - 7.50||158||1.26||-5.66||13.21||8.72||3.79||1.14||22.46||14|
|6||7.51 - 9.00||79||-5.00||10.17||7.64||7.55||-2.65||7.27||24.98||32|
|Odds range||Bets||P/L 2012||P/L 2013||P/L 2014||P/L 2015||P/L 2016||P/L 2017||TOTAL P/L||Yield|
|∑ = 1,465||∑ = 30.53||∑ = 60.72||∑ = 150.24||∑ = 54.17||∑ = 53.65||∑ = 29.41||∑ = 378.72|
If we analyse the results by odds range, we can confirm that the system works for every interval, where the yield keeps constant at each odds and for every year. Each interval has a consistent profit; that means that those odds fit for the strategy. For odds lower than 3.30 the strategy is still profitable, but the yield is very small, and with a huge number of bets, so we chose to exclude those odds to reduce the risk of the strategy.
In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.
Table #3. Detail of the football games included in the strategy
Here you can find the detail of all the past football games that fulfil with the filters and conditions of the betting system.
All the matches and results are the outcome of the strategy previously explained in a transparent manner. Errors and omissions excepted, these are the past games that comply with the requirements of the strategy.
Football Matches included in the Swim against the tide Strategy
|wdt_ID||Date||Country||League||DIV||Home Team||Away Team||Full Time Home Goals||Full Time Away Goals||Full Time Result (H/D/A)||Opening Odds||Closing Odds||P/L||Accum.|
|Date||Country||League||DIV||Home Team||Away Team||Full Time Home Goals||Full Time Away Goals||Full Time Result (H/D/A)||Opening Odds||Closing Odds||P/L||Accum.|
|∑ = -4.18|
This chart shows the progress of the results by date.
If you look closely at the chart, you can realise the profits increase slowly, but gradually. Here, the strategy suffers a long negative streak between October 2014 and May 2015. Besides, there are some extended periods of time, close to one year, where the strategy generated hardly any profit. The drawdown for the period studied is not very high but a little long.
Why is the drawdown so important?
When you start designing a new strategy, one of the key factors of a risk assessment is the maximum drawdown of the system. If you develop a strategy making a profit overall, it’s vital to calculate its max drawdown. It will help you to estimate the risk you are willing to assume. It is so important the maximum amount of loss as well as the length of that period.
The study of the maximum drawdown has to be compared with the total profit of the strategy to establish the risk of the system. If you calculate the amount and duration of the worst losses of the past results, you will be able to identify at any moment whether the behaviour of the strategy is indeed withing the normal limits. That will help you to control your emotional situation for losses streaks.
We are going to calculate the maximum drawdowns for this strategy.
Estimated level of risk: HIGH.
|MAX DD||-43.01||04.10.14||17.05.15||225 days|
For this strategy, the Approx. P-value = 0.0001, wich means we have a very strong evidence that the results for this system are not a matter of only luck.
For those who might be unfamiliar with the p-value concept, here you can find a brief explanation: The P-value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H0) of a study question is true – the definition of ‘extreme’ depends on how the hypothesis is being tested. P is also described in terms of rejecting H0 when it is actually true, however, it is not a direct probability of this state.
|P > 0.10|
No evidence against the null hypothesis. The data appear to be consistent with the null hypothesis.
|0.05 < P < 0.10||Weak evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.|
|0.01 < P < 0.05|
Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
|0.001 < P < 0.01|
Strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the
|P < 0.001|
Very strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
As you can check, this system makes a profit for most of the leagues and the period tested. This strategy is based 100% on statistical data. As we have mentioned many times, this kind of strategies are studied with historical data; nobody can be sure this system will continue making profits in the future.
We advise following this strategy for a long period of time. In case you decide to pursue this strategy, please take into account all theses factors before starting this adventure. We think this system can be very profitable in the long term, but as you already know, cycles can change, and past results do not guarantee future performances. This strategy will be reviewed periodically to make small enhancements to improve the end result.
We know it’s not an easy task to deal with the emotional, but If you can stand long negative streaks, you will get more chances to succeed in the world of the sports betting.
As we usually advise, we recommend you not to pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.