All fairly serious bettors, who understand gambling as a form of investment and not as a game, use their own strategies when betting. But what is a betting strategy? Why do we need them and what can we expect from them? In this website you will discover not only what the betting strategies are, but you will also discover a great number of proven strategies that are currently working successfully. Ready?
- 1 Why do we need strategies to bet?
- 2 What is a sports betting strategy?
- 3 Types of strategies
- 4 Value betting strategies
- 5 Live Trading Strategies
- 6 Strategies for Bank Management
- 7 Conclusions and advice to keep in mind
- 8 What to do from here?
Why do we need strategies to bet?
All bettors have a common goal when we bet: we want to win with our bets. But as practically anything that we propose in life, you need to visualize what your objective is in a more concrete way, and define and plan how you are going to achieve it. A plan is necessary, a method is necessary, it is necessary to chart a way to go, and a set of rules that allow us to get back on track when we drift away from it.
This method will consist of a set of strategies, which in turn will be formed by a series of rules, thanks to which we can always know, at all times, how to act or what we should do, without room for doubt. That is, there are many different bookmakers, countless markets to bet on, virtually endless options, then, a method to bet will help us answer these questions:
- How can we know which bet we should do at any given time, and that doing so is a wise decision?
- Why is it advisable to make that bet, and not just the opposite?
- How to know what odds we may be interested in making a bet or not?
- How much money should I risk in a certain bet?
- How can I know if my method does not work or am I just going through a losing streak and I should persevere?
- If my method does not work, how can I know the reason, if it is due to a bad selection of picks, or if it is due to poor bank management, or for any other reason?
All these questions and many more are answered on this website in a way accessible to the public, so that everyone, whoever you are and wherever you come from, without needing advanced studies in mathematics or statistics, have the opportunity to taste success in the long term in the world of sports betting.
What is a sports betting strategy?
A strategy for betting is a set of rules established in a concise manner, with the aim of turning the tables in the game, so that the advantage of the bookmaker is transformed into advantage of the bettor, and that he also knows at all times what to do and how to act. A strategy will tell you through the application of rules several of these actions: what bet to enter, when, in what conditions, how much to bet, at what time and how to get out, etc.
It is important to make it clear in advance that it is only possible to win in bets when you are playing in inaccurate markets, where there is a margin for uncertainty. In other words, nobody will ever find a game system that allows you to win in the long term in games of pure probability, with fixed probabilities. For example, there is no strategy to win long-term in casino roulette, considering that its operation is statistically perfect. Some readers will remember the famous case of Los Pelayo. They took advantage of the physical deficiencies of the tables (some inclination, etc), which caused probabilities that were not statistically perfect. The casinos learned from it and took action, do not think about trying it 😉
But nevertheless, yes, it is possible to win at the bookmakers in games of non-pure probability, not exact odds, where there is a margin of error. These games will usually be sports, although it is not the only case; there are very advanced models to calculate the probability of a sporting event, but none are accurate enough. If you have a system that allows you to go just one step ahead of the other players, you will end up winning in the long term. A strategy will help you identify where these calculation errors typically occur to take advantage of them in your favor. Keep reading and discover with us how to win by betting.
On this website you can learn everything and find all the resources and tools necessary to beat the bookmakers in the long term, no gimmicks, in a completely transparent way. Continue reading and you will be able to see for yourself.
Types of strategies
There are many types of strategies, with different purposes, different philosophies, different objectives, etc. Broadly speaking, we have on the one hand that some strategies are pursuing the highest possible return, and other strategies are aimed at minimizing risks, while on the other hand there are strategies with the aim to make small gains in the short term, while others pursue greater gains in the long term. You can think of each of these strategies as if they were your weapon to fight with the bookmaker, and your goal should be to get your hands on an arsenal of them. Consider that the more weapons you have and the better you know how to use them, the more likely you are to succeed.
Every bettor must treasure for himself all those strategies that suit his profile as an investor. For example, some prefer to bet on live events, while others prefer to do it before the beginning and dedicate themselves to other things while the game goes on. Some prefer to take higher risks and obtain higher returns, while others prefer to minimize the risks and therefore also the returns. Some prefer to place few bets while others prefer to place many bets. Maybe you settle for lower profits in the short term, or are you more ambitious and prefer greater returns in the long term? Your profile as a bettor is only known by you: you are the only one who knows in what kind of scenarios you will feel more comfortable.
Having said this, within the portfolio of every bettor you can find strategies of the following types (among others) working in coordinated combination:
- Value betting strategies: these strategies are generally seeking high returns over the long term without having to devote much time to bet.
- Live trading strategies: more oriented to a lower benefit in the short term and low risk, but that involve much greater dedication of time and effort.
- Bank/Stake management strategies: these are another type of strategies completely different from the previous ones, whose objective is to be able to maintain a balanced bank, promoting the highest possible profitability, while avoiding the risk of bankruptcy.
Value betting strategies
These types of strategies or systems are based on the selection of bets whose price (or odds) are paid above their real value, so that an advantage in the long run for the bettor on the bookmaker is obtained. These types of strategies are what should form the hard core of any method to bet if you want to be successful in the long term, and they are precisely the kind of strategies that can be analyzed using the Betamin Builder tool. As we have said before, with this type of strategy what is sought is high profitability in the long term, without the need to spend a lot of time if you have the right tools, as in this case, the Betamin Builder, which will do the hard work for you. Otherwise, analyzing, designing and following these strategies may require excessive time.
Odds, or exact value, for a sports bet is impossible to know for sure. Just as the probability of getting a face when flipping a coin is 50% and we can know it exactly, it is not possible to know the exact odds for a sports result. Of course there are many algorithms to calculate these odds, more or less complex, but in the exact calculation of that value come into play so many factors of such a variety that can be influenced a multitude of different ways, that the exact calculation seems impossible to determine. What’s more, if we wanted to prove that our algorithm calculates odds exactly, it would not be possible to do so. It could only be shown that a set of odds generated by our algorithm are more or less closer to the exact value than another set generated by another different algorithm, but it is not possible to demonstrate that the individual odds figure, in itself, is accurate, given that it is not possible to repeat the same exact sporting event as many times as necessary (thousands of times) until you prove that the calculated probability is the exact one.
This is precisely what the good news is, that the exact odds are impossible to know and therefore the market odds have errors in their calculation, and also prices move for various reasons, which leads to the appearance of even more errors in the calculation of odds offered by the market. However, there is also bad news, knowing how to detect these errors is extremely difficult: it is necessary to have a large amount of data to be able to analyze, do back-testing to prove theories, etc. etc. and obviously it is not available to everyone to have these large databases and know how to handle them with ease. To cover this need we have created the Betamin Builder tool, assembling large amounts of data about football bets accessible to everyone in a simple way.
Therefore, we can see a value betting strategy as an algorithm or method that is able to detect bets whose probability of having value is very high. That is, no one can ever know for sure when a bet has value (except in very extreme cases), but we can know if the set of bets generated by a strategy of this type, as a whole, have value. What we have just seen implies that these type of betting strategies require relatively large amounts of bets to know if a strategy works correctly as expected, that is, these are strategies to use in the long term.
Let’s see this with a simple example, the already well-known case of the heads or tails. We know that the probability of a coin toss is 50%, which is equivalent to odds of 2. This would be the exact and fair odds for this bet. We can then say without fear of making a mistake that a 2.1 odds bet has value. Assuming for example an ideal case (which is not real) in which after 100 coin tosses you get 50 heads and 50 tails, if you were betting € 1 on each toss, we would lose 50 tosses, and win on another 50 tosses at odds 2.1, so the final result would be that after investing € 100 (that is, € 1 on each roll), we obtain -50 + 50 x (1.1) = € 5. This would mean that we obtain, in the ideal case, a return (also known as Yield or ROI) of 5%, that is, after investing € 100 we have obtained € 5 of profit.
However, in real life, ideal cases do not always occur as stated. In real life, after 100 coin tosses, it could happen, and it would not be strange, that 60 heads and 40 tails come up, or even more disparate cases. If we are betting on the tails, in that case we would get -60 + 40 x (1.1) = -16 €, that is, we would have lost € 16 after 100 bets, and yet our bets were good, they had enough value to expect a return of 5%. What would happen if we keep betting, that is, if we go to the long term? Well according to the law of large numbers we would get more similar results to the ideal case. For example, it would not be unreasonable to think that after 1000 bets you could get 520 faces and 480 crosses. In this case the result would be -520 + 480 x (1.1) = € 8. Still below the expected profitability, but already begin to be positive results.
The same approach is the other way around, that is, we have seen the example of what happens if luck goes against us when we throw the coin, but if luck was in our favor, obviously the results would change a lot. If in 100 tosses we won 60 bets at odds 2.1, we would get a final return of € 26. Spectacular, if our expected return is 5%, getting 26% is amazing. But it is important to be aware that this does not mean that our bets were better, but that luck was on our side.
Here is one of the main reasons why the public loses money betting, and it is nothing other than that, in general, the bettor does not have the patience and discipline necessary to persevere in the long term and overcome the challenges of bad luck and then take advantage of the favorable winds of good luck when it comes to us.
Let’s see what happens if in the first example, in which by bad luck we lose 60 bets and we gain 40, the expected return would be greater, that is, if instead of betting on a 2.1 odds we would do it with a 2.5 odds. The results would be: -60 + 40 x (1.5) = 0, that is, we would not have won or lost anything.
As an obvious conclusion of all this, the greater the expected return of a strategy (Yield or ROI), the lower the probability of suffering losses with it in the short term. However, in the long term, all positive expectation strategies will end up giving positive results, according to the law of large numbers.
Below are several examples from our blog of value betting strategies that are currently working well and returning profits in the long term, analyzed to the last detail, that you can follow by yourself or else you can follow them through our Betamin Builder tool. If you want to know all our articles on sports betting strategies you have them available at this link.
Live Trading Strategies
These strategies, although they do not strictly require the use of betting exchanges, are usually executed in this type of betting platform because they facilitate their operations. As we have said before, these strategies are oriented towards a lower benefit in the short term and low risk, but they involve much greater dedication of time and effort. This is because in addition to selecting the matches that we are going to enter, once the game is started it is necessary to be attentive to their evolution to know when to execute the trading order and thus close the bet with a result, either positive or negative.
They are much more demanding strategies in many aspects. It becomes much more difficult for the bettor to control his irrational impulses and act with a cool head when watching a game live on television or following it on the radio, especially if it is his favorite team.
As a general rule, the operation of this type of strategy will consist in making a back bet to a specific event when it is paid at a relatively high price (here it is worth looking for bets with value), in order to later make a bet against (Lay bet) when its price is lower, thus ensuring a profit regardless of the final result. A typical example could be to back the draw at the start of a game, and if after a few minutes the game is tied the odds will have dropped enough to bet against the draw and leave with guaranteed profit, regardless of what happens.
There is another popular trading strategy that does the opposite, commonly called “Lay the draw”, and can be seen in more detail in the following post of our blog, where we analyze its operation:
Strategies for Bank Management
The objective of these type of strategies will normally be to achieve the highest possible profitability while avoiding the risk of bankruptcy. As in all strategies, there is no bank management strategy better or worse than another, but one will adapt better than another to your own objectives and way of betting. Let’s see a brief summary of some of them:
Level Stake Strategy
It consists of applying the same risk to each bet always, which will generally be 1% or 2% of the initial bank. After a cycle to be defined by the bettor, which can be spent a month or more, or it can be when a certain amount has been reached in the bank (above or below), or it can be when a certain number of bets have been placed, the stake is recalculated based on the bank at that time and bets are placed with the new stake during another cycle.
The advantages of this way of betting are the simplicity (you do not complicate your life calculating each stake), and it could also be said, its transparency. Using flat stakes, the results end successfully only if they are bets with value, there is no trap. With other types of stake management it is possible to “camouflage” the results when things go wrong. As in everything, there are defenders and detractors of this system. Simply, if it fits like a glove to your way of betting, use it.
Stake based on odds Strategy
The philosophy of this stake management strategy is based on the fact that for bets with lower odds, which are more frequently guessed correctly, we will invest a larger stake than the one invested for larger odds, which are solved less frequently. In this way you try to get a bank as stable as possible, given that a bad run of many bets lost at high odds will not make a big break in the bank. However, we are never free from a bad run at low odds, which could cause a big hole in your bank.
The ways to calculate the stake in this type of strategies are varied, and as always, it depends on your own way of betting; for example, a specific stake can be used for each odds range. We could say, for odds lower than 1.5, a stake of 3%, for odds between 1.5 and 2, a stake of 2%, and for odds greater than 2, a stake of 1%. Another way to calculate it would be using an inverse formula for the odds, for example, for odds 2, we could calculate the inverse 1 / (2-1) = 1%, which tells us to invest 1% from the bank; for odds 1.5 we would invest 1 / (1.5-1) = 2% of the bank, for odds 3 we would invest 1 / (3-1) = 0.5% of the bank, etc.
Value based staking Strategy
This type of strategy is ideal for the vast majority of the public, because with it in theory you get the highest possible return, with bankruptcy protection. It consists of investing a larger stake proportionally to the value of the bet, that is, a higher stake when the value of the bet is greater, and vice versa, lower stake when the value of the bet is lower.
Seen this way it’s great, the problem is that, as we said before, NO ONE is able to know for sure what the exact odds or probability of a particular sporting event is with certainty, and therefore it is not possible to know how much value each odds has associated with, to invest more or less in it. Therefore, in the case of sports betting, this variable stake strategy is only strictly valid in theory. However, yes, you can have an approximate idea, within a margin of error, of what the exact probability of occurrence of a sporting event may be, and in practice this strategy is used in this way, assuming a margin of error in the calculation of the exact odds.
Within this type of strategies, the most popular one is undoubtedly Kelly criterion, very well explained on the Pinnacle Sports website.
Stake management strategies that you should NEVER use
There are bank management strategies widely spread over the internet whose only objective is to make you think that they are infallible strategies, when in reality they will inevitably lead you to bankruptcy. Usually these types of strategies are disclosed by unscrupulous people whose goal is to make you take the bait and lose all your money in the online casino, that they own or take a commission from.
The most widespread strategy of this type, although it has multiple variants, is the one known as Martingale. It consists of betting a unit and if you lose the bet then double your stake, and so on until you win the bet. Let’s suppose a case in which you lose 8 bets in a row, nothing crazy. Our stake progression would be: 1 – 2 – 4 – 8 – 16 – 32 – 64 – 128 – > € 256. We would see ourselves in the blink of an eye investing too big stakes, and that without counting that you can not always bet as much stake as you want in all your bets.
We have already said it and we will not tire of repeating it as many times as necessary: never use systems such as Martingale and any of its variants or you will inevitably end up in bankruptcy.
Conclusions and advice to keep in mind
We will briefly and quickly state a series of final conclusions and tips, directly to the point:
- Remember that every serious bettor must have a set of strategies to bet that help you never to deviate from the path and always know what you have to do and how. Remember also that the preparation of a portfolio of strategies depends on the way of betting of each one in particular.
- This set of strategies should have at least several of them oriented to get value in the odds, it is better to diversify to reduce risk on one strategy, and it is also essential to have bank management strategies, all of them interrelated.
- Always try to find the best odds in different bookmakers and avoid bookmakers that limit winning users (or use them until they limit you).
- You must be absolutely methodical and disciplined, and never get carried away by impulses or sudden emotions, which will make you make mistakes.
- Focus on pursuing the long term when evaluating your results. In another case a bad streak will make you abandon at a loss a system that could be the winner, and the bad times will come, you can be sure. Of course, you should establish within your strategies a stop-loss policy to protect against losses.
- Last but not least, validate your strategies with a prior analysis before investing your money in them. You can do it without betting, or by betting symbolic amounts. Do not risk significant amounts of money without first validating the strategy that supports your bet.
What to do from here?
- Sign up for Betamin Builder for free, and design and analyze your own strategies.
- Review the public strategies generated by other Betamin Builder users.
- Read more about strategies in our blog.
- Read more about bank management in our blog.
- Review the betting guides of our blog.
- Download the second book on the Betamin Builder for FREE here.