Hi everyone,

We are going to test a new betting system to check the results with all of you. We have called it, “Last 3 Games without Draw”, we are sure, you already guessed what it is all about.

Description of the System

We have seen too many systems about the Draw, regarding Martingale (doubling the stake to win the initial amount bet), or searching a long streak without Draw waiting for a Draw to happen. The question is how long the streak can last, five, six, seven matches. And the most important thing, how much of your stake you are willing to sacrifice. There is a simple rule; stats are stats, sometimes they mean something, i.e., a team in good form. But the most difficult part of the process is to read them correctly.

The approach of this strategy is easy. Generally, Draw odds range from 3.00 (2/1), depending on the match, that implies a 33% of probability. In line with this point of view, we can think that after three games in a row without a draw, the odds estimated by the bookies that the fourth match could be higher. To reinforce this concept, we focus on games when both teams meet the same conditions.

Let’s see what happens!

System Parameters

  • We have tested this system with 22 most important European National Leagues.
  • Data Source. All data used for the report come from football data website.
  • Draw odds are from bookmaker Bet365.
  • Odds range: equal or lower to 4.00 (3/1).
  • We are using one unit stake; we don’t want to double the stake every time the bet is lost. You will see that on many sites. That is called Martingale system, and believe me, the worst thing you can do to reduce all your balance to zero.
  • Date range: from August 2008 to October 2016.
  • We search games with these conditions: last three games of both teams without a draw, place a draw bet on the fourth.
  • To elaborate this system, we have built two tables, one only taking into account last three games played at home or away, and the other one overall (home and away).
  • Yield. Yield is a measure of betting tips efficiency. It depends on a corresponding selection of bets and odds for certain matches.
Yield %: Net Profit or Loss /Total Stake * 100 %

Table #1: Last 3 Games without Draw – Home Team (at home) vs. Away Team (away) –

Last 3 Games without Draw (Home - Away)

Conditions for this case

  • Home team without a draw in the last three games played at home against Away Team without a draw in the last three games played away.
  • The system places a draw bet in the fourth game when requirements meet.
  • Bet365 Odds equal or lower to 4.00 (3/1).

Results

As you can see, only six football leagues make a profit with this betting system. The most profitable leagues to bet on using this system are Bundesliga 2, England Premier League, England Championship, Italy Serie B, Greece Superleague and Eredivisie. As Premier League and Serie B have hardly made profits in this system, we show a summary with the rest of the leagues.

LeagueGamesProfitYield
2. Bundesliga305+8.35 u.+2.74 %
Championship548+44.00 u.+8.03 %
Greece Superl.247+18.79 u.+7.61 %
Eredivisie315+18.65 u.+5.92 %


Table #2: 
Last 3 Games without Draw –Home Team (overall) vs. Away Team (overall) –

Last 3 Games without Draw (Overall)

Conditions for this case

  • Team A without a draw in the last three games played overall, against Team B without a draw in the last three games played overall.
  • The system places a draw bet in the fourth game when requirements meet.
  • Bet365 Odds equal or lower to 4.00 (3/1).

Results

If we take into account all matches played overall, the results are similar to the previous case. We can find here six leagues with a bit higher profits. These leagues are England Premier League, Championship, League Two, France Ligue 1, Ligue 2 and finally Portugal Primeira Liga.

LeagueGamesProfitYield
Premier League370+38.20 u.+10.32 %
Championship511+21.50 u.+3.90 %
EN League Two611+11.45 u.+1.87 %
Ligue 1394+19.50 u.+4.95 %
Ligue 2281+34.74 u.+12.36 %
Primeira Liga227+8.85 u.+3.90 %

Conclusions

After that results, we have to decide if this system is profitable enough to consider it as a good strategy. In general terms, this system realised losses. However, we find some leagues making consistent profits throughout the study period. Besides, it has to be taken into consideration that the odds in this system come from one bookmaker. We always recommended to use several bookies and choose the highest odds available, that could change the results of the report in some leagues.

Our experience shows that this kind of analysis helps you identify other possible strategies or even the behaviour in some leagues. We suggest building your strategies, playing with the parameters for each one, try to find an edge in the system. Create your own systems, save them all, although they might not seem profitable; they can give you good ideas to build a better system for the next time.

Don’t pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.

If you want to propose a particular betting system to be analysed, please send us an email  support@betaminic.com or using our contact form, we will glad to help you.

Thanks!