Do You Have Discipline in Betting? Make a plan with the right tools from Betaminic
Betaminic is not a tipster website. It does not provide tips on who will win a football match.
Betaminic is a Value Betting system support tools provider.
Betamin Builder is a value bet finder. It uses historical bookmaker odds and football statistics to find good value odds about their fair value. Betting on these kinds of bets long term is the only way to consistently beat the market without clairvoyant powers.
Betlamp is a fixture list scanner. It searches for and alerts you to fixtures that match your search criteria. This gives you double confirmation that fixtures are not only value but also fulfil additional statistical requirements.
These tools are meant to be used with a long-term value betting system.
What is Value Betting?
Value betting (or Positive Expected Value +EV betting) is different from normal gambling.
Most gambling systems try to predict the winner of an event. The aim is to win 100% of bets.
The value betting strategies in the Betamin Builder aim to make a percentage profit on the total volume of bets over a period of time. This percentage profit is the yield. For a 50-50 event like over 2.5 goals bets, we only expect to win 50% of our bets and we expect to lose 50% of those bets. But at the end of 100 bets, if the expected yield is 5%, then we expect to make a 5% profit on the total stakes used. If we are betting €50 on each of those bets, then we would expect to make €50 x 100 bets x 5% yield which is €250 if the trend continues its historical pattern.
If a strategy produces 25 picks per month, then we expected it to take 4 months to reach that 100 bet number.
If the strategy has a Maximum Drawdown of -25, then we should be mentally prepared for a losing run of -25 points, and we should not give up if we have losing runs within that expected 25 range. If we quit after 10 losses in a row, then we are missing out on the expected wins that are due to come if the strategy is keeping its historical trend.
This means we need to make a plan and stick with it. We need to be disciplined.
What does a disciplined plan with Betamin Builder look like?
For example, the strategy ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20) has a win rate of 54%. So over the next 100 bets, we expect to win only 54 of them and lose 46 of them. The wins and losses could come in any order. It is quite conceivable to lose 10 or more bets in a row. But we make a plan to get through those losing runs, because we are betting on a 100 bet period.
The Maximum Drawdown is 26.97. So if we are betting 1 point from a 100 point bank on each pick, then we would be prepared to see our bank drop to 74% of its starting level in some cases. But if it goes below that, then it is breaking its historical low.
The yield is 7%. So after 100 bets of €50 each, we would expect to make €50 x 100 bets x 7% yield = €350.
If we pay €1 for each pick (pick prices range from €0.69 to €1.19 depending on what pack you select.) then 100 picks would be €100. That leaves €250 in expected profit after pick costs.
The average number of bets per month is 35. So our plan will be expected to run for 3 months or longer to get near the 100 bet number. (Even more disciplined and long-term minded value bettors will make plans for 300-500 bet plans.)
This is an example of a plan that would run for 3 months and users should stick with the same staking levels to the end of the plan to really see its results. Stopping too early; stopping after a run of 10 losses; changing staking levels midway; increasing stakes to recover losses; these are all things we should avoid.
Once you have made a plan for one strategy. Then make another plan for another strategy or another set of strategies. Each of them should be allowed to follow their plan to the end.
If we give up or change too soon, the plan never gets a chance to show its results.
What does a disciplined plan with Betlamp look like?
For example, we can find value bets by looking at the historical incidence of an event in relation to its available odds, such as both teams scoring for the home and away teams. We can decide that we will back matches where the odds are higher than the implied probability of the event happening based on the historical statistics. In Betamin Builder strategies are saved and the progress monitored automatically. In Betlamp you need to keep a log of strategy bets yourself. Let’s make a Both Teams to Score (BTTS) strategy.
First, we open Betlamp and select filters to see which fixtures feature teams with BTTS % incidences over 50% based on this season’s games as long as they have played at least 20 games.
We can then see upcoming fixtures that feature two teams with a high BTTS incidence.
As an example, we can see San Diego Loyal has had 65.38% of its 26 matches having both teams score and Oakland Roots has had 68% of its 25 games having bot teams scored. We can then hypothesise that there is a 65-68% chance of this match finishing with both teams scoring.
Second, we plug the lower percentage into an odds converter site such as AceOdds.
We then get odds of 1.54. These could be considered fair odds based on this season’s form.
If we can find any bookmaker offering higher odds than this, we could consider it value.
We can use odds comparison sites such as Oddspedia to easily see BTTS odds available for this event.
We can see that there are odds of 1.67 available at some bookmakers.
And if we look at Betfair, we can see that we can take the 1.61 back offer or ask for 1.72 to become the front of the queue for lay offers.
In this way we can use Betlamp to get an idea for what odds are value and what odds are not.
With this BTTS strategy, we should stick to our plan for at least 100 bets and keep track of our results to know how well the strategy has worked. If we give up after a few bets, we don’t get any meaningful data to know if the strategy works or not. This is what we mean about discipline. We need to make a plan and stick to it.
You can save your selected Betlamp filters and you can get emailed alerts when new fixtures are found that match your criteria. It saves you time and effort.
What does a disciplined plan with Betamin Builder AND Betlamp look like?
If both Betamin Builder and Betlamp highlight the same match as value for over 2.5 goals and also a high probability of both teams scoring, then you could add an extra strategy that bets extra on these double-highlighted events. Such as an extra bet on the over 1.5 goals market or on the over 0.5 goals by HT market. Again, that should be treated as a separate strategy that should also be allowed to run for at least 100 bets to get enough data to show how it is performing.
Short term lucky profit is for gamblers. Long term profit is for disciplined value bettors.
This is who Betaminic strategies are for.