Every year we rank the best betting strategies by profit, yield, drawdown and Betaminic rating. Here we can see the long-term winning strategies and also see some new strategy ideas that have been successful. In this article we will highlight the top performing strategies and show how they can work together in a multi-strategy betting system. With big data from the Betamin Builder tool, we can easily see what worked historically and follow those strategies for the best chance of success in the future.

What is Betaminic and its Betamin Builder Tool?

The Betaminic website provides a tool called the “Betamin Builder” that has a database of over 11 years of football statistics and matching bookmaker odds covering 111 leagues around the world. This means that you can backtest betting strategy ideas very easily with real historical bookmaker odds. So if you can find a betting strategy that has worked long term historically, then you can reasonably expect that such a betting strategy has more chance of making profit than a betting system that has not been independently backtested yourself (like many paid tipsters and other betting systems for sale out there).

What are the Public Strategies?

Betaminic has been running since 2017 and many users share their strategies on the “public strategies” page inside the Betamin Builder. It is free to sign up and look at those strategies. In the beginning, it is probably easier to just follow the most successful publicly shared strategies. And then you can start to create your own private strategies later on if you get inspired to do so. The strategies can be ranked in many ways, such as by profit and loss, yield, drawdown and other factors. We also have our own “Betaminic rating” that we use to make it easier to see which strategies are performing the best. The Betaminic rating is the default order that the public strategies are listed in. So the easiest way to start is to click on the “follow” button for a few of the top ranking strategies that you like the look of. In this article, we rank those public strategies and explain them in a bit more detail so you can see which strategies are performing the best right now.

6 Ranking Tables in this article

  • Top 10 by Profit
  • Top 10 by Yield
  • Top 10 by Lowest Drawdown
  • Top 10 by Betaminic Rating
  • Top 10 by Data
  • Overall Top 10

General Ranking Rules

We have only included strategies that:

  • Have a yield of 3% or more in their “Since shared” data set.
  • Have more than 100 bets in their “Since shared” data set

There are more than 700 publicly shared strategies at the moment. In order to make the rankings more meaningful we have excluded strategies that have a yield of less than 3% in their “Since shared” period of data. Why is the “Since shared” period important? The “Since shared” period has the results of the strategy since it was shared publicly. This means that the strategy has not been edited or changed since that point. We can see very clearly what results would have been achieved if the betting strategy rules that were set had been followed. When researching strategies, it is important to avoid data mining (selecting only good results from the data) and to find real trends and patterns in the historical data. A very simple way is to confirm this is to look at the “Since shared” results to see if the positive trend is continuing. We also exclude strategies with less than 100 bets in their “Since shared” results data set. This is because we feel that less than 100 bets is not enough to say with confidence whether a strategy is continuing the trend that was researched. With these 2 filters, we then rank the remaining 97 strategies that meet these requirements. This does however mean that a number of the recently updated versions of old strategies have not yet reached enough bets to be included in these rankings, but it does not mean that those updated strategies are bad strategies. If we see that their original strategies are ranked highly in 2023, then we can be encouraged that the updated strategies will also continue to take advantage of the profitable trend being followed, with the advantage of following it in more leagues.

Table Key

AR = All Results

SS = Since Shared

The ranking tables display the data from both the All Results and Since Shared periods. You can see them by the AR or SS in their column headers.

Note: These are the results until 16/12/2023. Screenshot results may be different.

Top 10 by Profit

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS  Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  Contend UD (Misbe91) Home Win 58 1,290 27 3.59 126.00 9.77 -33.24 -33.24
2  Vitória do mandante com dos alta (Pablodanieldias) Home Win 37 968 27 3.54 98.77 10.20 -33.32 -33.32
3  Golden6.4 – Missing Draws (Betaminic) Draw 8 2,694 51 3.16 92.45 3.43 -50.67 -54.29
4  Missing Draws- All Leagues (Maxi) Draw 11 1,961 67 3.15 88.87 4.53 -37.05 -55.56
5  Draw, both teams scored (McMcDonald) Draw 10 1,858 30 3.38 88.63 4.77 -41.24 -41.24
6  Missing Draws - Top Leagues (Maxi) Draw 26 1,050 22 3.16 86.14 8.20 -42.18 -42.18
7  Colossus 10 Away Dog Draw (Betaminic) Draw 6 2,399 25 3.81 84.14 3.51 -72.77 -72.77
8  Home king (AugustinVidic) Home Win 10 1,513 42 3.66 83.57 5.52 -55.66 -55.66
9  Poor Home (Odds 3+ Y5%+ 1/10 won in last 10) (twsystem1bm) Home Win 11 810 27 5.18 81.09 10.01 -81.27 -81.27
10  Not home on. (Adebola) Home Win 7 1,636 36 4.20 79.37 4.85 -80.26 -80.26

Profits No.1:  +126 points            Contend UD by user Misbe91

Contend UD was No1 last year and is still Number 1 this year for profit. It has continued its trend and has added +42 points to its total profit in 2023. Its maximum drawdown was -28.04 in December 2022, but that has increased slightly to -33.24. Despite that slight increase in MDD, its yield improved from +9.09% to 9.77%. Despite having a poor 2 months recently, this is one of the best performing and most consistent public strategies available. There are several variations of the core filters of this strategy and the against the trend idea behind this strategy keeps finding value picks. The low win rate of 35% can be a bit tough to follow for some, but the results make it a strategy to be considered very seriously. In its Since Shared history it has never had 3 losing months in a row, so January looks like a perfect time to start following this strategy and catch its return to form.

This home win strategy was shared in May 2020 and has been running for over three and a half years. You can login to the Betamin Builder to see the exact strategy filters, but this strategy’s basic core idea is to back home teams that have not won in the medium term form for a while at home. This is an against the trend strategy. It goes against the crowd. It does not bet on the obvious choice looking at the recent form. But as suggested in this article by one of our users who is an ex-sportsbook employee, the public market often pushes down the odds of the obvious choices that follow the trend, meaning the unpopular bets rise in value above their fair odds. This s where we can capitalize on the opportunity and get value odds. This method has led to a stunning 9% yield after 1,290 bets. That is a very significant data of bets to get confidence from. It is over the 1,000 bet mark. Its maximum drawdown is only -33.22 points across all its All Results history of 3,767 bets since March 2012. It has a 36% win rate and average odds of 3.59 which means it needs discipline to follow since more than 50% of bets will be losers. You really have to understand the meaning of value betting to be able to follow this strategy. Despite a win rate of 36%, the odds being offered on these matches are equivalent to a win rate lower than 36%, so the longer we keep betting on this trend, the more chance we will get results similar to the long-term trend of +9% ROI. If we look at the monthly P/L we can see there are winning and losing months, sometimes 2-3 months of flat results and then a few big profit months. This really shows the need for discipline with value betting. You need to make a plan to follow this strategy long term. If you follow it for 25 bets, it is pure luck if you will make a profit or not. If you follow it for 100 bets, you have much more chance of getting results nearer to the trend, and if you follow it for 1,000 bets, you will have the best possible chance of getting the same results as this strategy has if the trend continues. Rather than thinking of time in terms of how many months you need to follow this strategy, it is better to think of time in terms of number of bets. You need to follow this strategy for over 500 bets to reasonably expect to achieve similar trend line results. This strategy has been running since 2020 and has been high on the ratings table many times. It truly is a worthy profit champion for 2023. We highly recommend adding this to your set of strategies for 2024.

Profits No.2: +98.77 points Vitória do mandante com dos alta by user Pablodanieldias

 

 Vitória do mandante com dos alta is a variation of the core filters of 1st place Contend UD, but the filters are different enough for it to count as a separate strategy. This user has reduced the odds range being covered and also changed the leagues being selected from the 111-league database. In this way, duplicating and changing the filters of existing public strategies is a good way to get used to the Betamin Builder and also sometimes find improved versions of existing strategies. This edited version has manged a slightly better yield of +10.20% with a similar drawdown. It also managed to make December 2023 a winning month instead of a losing month that Contend UD had. It is worth noting that from May 2021 to April 2022, the strategy had a very unconvincing run with a long slow decline and then a jump up and another slow decline. In terms of time it looks like 12 months of pain, but in that time the strategy would have only produced about 330 bets.  For value betting, it is important to follow a trend for 500-1,000 bets to give it the best chance to reproduce its trend. When you make a plan to follow a strategy, plan to follow it for a number of bets, not a time period.

Profits No.3:  +92.45 points Golden6.4 – Missing Draws by Betaminic and researched by user Maxi

 

 Golden6.4 – Missing Draws is a draw backing strategy that also uses elements of the against the trend concept to find matches that have not had draws recently and consequently may have the draw undervalued. One very good plus point for this strategy is the volume of data it has supporting its trend. It has 7,257 bets in its All Results data and 2,694 bets in its Since Shared period. That is an enormous amount of data to backup this strategy. It also means it would only take 10 months to reach the 500-bet mark with this strategy that produces an average of 51 picks per month. That makes it faster to reach its targets than other strategies. With larger bet numbers, the Maximum Drawdown is also higher at -50.67 in its Since Shared period and -54 in its All Results period. This is not unusually high for a 33%-win rate strategy with average odds of 3.16 and thousands of bets in its data set. We have some users who also use Betaminic draw strategies like this to also place additional in-play bets when the first goal is scored with the aim to get even more value out of the equalizer that the public market is not expecting.

Profits No.4-10

Profits No.4 Missing Draws- All Leagues by Maxi

This daw strategy has similar filters to 3rd place Golden6.4 – Missing Draws. But this version edits the odds range slightly and applies the filters to all 111 leagues in the database. This allows it to find even more picks per month, about 67 per month on average. It has a similar drawdown to the 3rd place strategy, but actually has a smoother performance in terms of the profit graph.

Profits No.5 Draw, both teams scored by McMcDonald

Another draw backing strategy makes the profit top 10. This time looking for teams where the draw odds are on the lower side, but both teams have been scoring in recent games. We are expecting that if one team scores then the other team has the form to equalize and we can expect 1-1 and 2-2 draws.

Profits No.6 Missing Draws – Top Leagues by Maxi

This draw strategy also has similar filters to the 3rd place strategy, but this time applies them only to “top” leagues. That definition of top leagues is up to the user Maxi, and he specifies in the strategy description area that he is referring to “high liquidity” leagues. In this way the user can cut out low liquidity leagues and focus just on those leagues where his stake sizes are likely to get fully matched. It is very interesting that all versions of this core trend have performed so well over a number of years. So users can cast their net wide with the all leagues version or focus on liquidity with the top leagues version.

Profits No.7 Colossus 10 Away Dog Draw by Betaminic

This strategy backs the draw when the away team is the underdog but not with such high odds that suggest it has no chance, plus only in games where over 2.5 goals are strongly expected. Its profit results are very strong, but we would not recommend following this strategy since its maximum drawdown is a very high -73 and the top 3 strategies by profit are much better strategies to follow.

Profits No.8 Home king by AugustinVidic

The strategy by profit is another home bet strategy. This is also an against the trend style strategy. It backs home teams that have not won in terms of very short-term form when they are playing an away team that has not lost in their very recent form. It also looks for home teams in a very narrow band of odds. It is possible that there may be some very limited overlapping between this strategy and the Contend UD strategy, but due to their filters it is likely that both strategies will produce a lot of separate picks. So it is okay to follow both of these strategies at the same time. The big differences between these two strategies is that Home King is looking at the very recent form of both the home and away team and limiting that to a narrow band of home win odds, whereas the previous Contend UD only looks at the home team medium term form with a much a wider range of home win odds. An aspect that both of these strategies have is that they are against the trend style in their core logic. We again see that to beat the market we must think in a different way to the general public. Another plus point of this strategy is that its winning and losing months seem much more evenly spread out. It has a decent 5% yield after 1,513 bets. Those are very strong numbers that we can have true confidence in. The drawdown is -55, so it has more volatility than the previous Contend UD strategy. The Since Shared win rate is lower at 31%. We recommend both strategies, but if we had to pick one, it would be Contend UD due to its lower drawdown.

Profits No.9 Poor Home (Odds 3+ Y5%+ 1/10 won in last 10) by twsystem1bm

This is another extreme version of the against the trend home win idea, and its high drawdown of -81 and low win rate of 25% make it very hard to follow. But its core idea is worth duplicating and using as a base for further research.

Profits No.10 Not home on. by Adebola

This home team backing strategy was shared in August 2020 and has been running for over three a half years. It has made +79 points profit in that time after 1,636 bets with a 4.85% yield. It basically backs underdogs at home with poor recent form when they play an away team that isn’t a super strong favourite in terms of long term away form. This ends up with betting on higher than normal home odds and can have longer losing runs as a result of natural variance. Its low 28% win rate gives it a lower hit rate than draw betting. This strategy produces an average of 36 bets per month which is an easy amount to manage. It is worth noting that this strategy has a drawdown of -80 points which is very high and it may be better following other less volatile strategies.

 

Top 10 by Yield

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home (twsystem1bm) Home Win 99 173 5 3.83 56.25 32.51 -10.30 -33.00
2  Colossus 01 Home Dog (Betaminic) Home Win 68 125 2 2.97 36.28 29.02 -14.13 -14.13
3  We can Win (danielvaldes) Home Win 9 121 11 5.24 30.65 25.33 -19.07 -27.05
4  Awful Home Team - Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 39 of 111 leagues (twsystem1bm) Home Win 7 116 10 4.90 24.43 21.06 -8.00 -39.62
5  Awful Home Team - Negative Exclusion (2022-10-25) 73 of 111 leagues (twsystem1bm) Home Win 9 203 14 5.12 38.49 18.96 -14.00 -28.39
6  Gana local - Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 42 of 111 leagues (twsystem1bm) Home Win 11 150 11 3.47 27.80 18.53 -11.57 -21.44
7  championnat nul b2 2019 (nirnouta50) Draw 8 179 12 3.66 27.32 15.26 -20.51 -34.95
8  Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) (Betaminic) Over 2.5 goals 100 361 10 2.09 50.19 13.90 -14.55 -14.55
9  championnat nul d6 (nirnouta A) Draw 9 193 15 3.28 26.70 13.83 -17.72 -24.85
10  Gana Local (hank2182) Home Win 16 357 7 3.50 48.18 13.50 -17.95 -21.85

Yield No.1:   32.51% Yield TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home by twsystem1bm

 

TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home by user twsystem1bm was number 2 in the yield rankings last year and has risen to top spot. It has settings very similar to Contend UD, the number one ranked strategy by profit. The difference is that this strategy cuts out very strong odds-on home prices and also uses fewer leagues. The yield of +32% after 173 bets I very impressive. The drawdown is a -33 in its all results period and has a decent win rate of 40%. The profit graph looks like it is moving upwards in jumps and then flat periods. The next jump looks to be coming soon.

 

Yield No.2: 29.02% Yield  Colossus 01 Home Dog by Betaminic  

  

Colossus 01 Home Dog is a very unusual strategy in that it has been heavily filtered down to the point where its all results bet data only has 236 bets from 11 years. Usually we would worry that this is over filtering and the data not enough to be meaningful, but this strategy has continued to defy expectations and produced high yields in the 5 years since it was share. This strategy first appeared in the book Winning Betting Systems which had a set of 21 strategies called the Colossus 21. An updated version of this strategy was shared called 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues where the exact same filters were applied to all 111 leagues in the database. This strategy is also making profit with high yields but has not reached the 100 bet mark in the since shared data set to appear in this top 10 list. It still only produces 6 picks per month, but more than the original strategy which has found a very specific vein of value in the market.

  

Yield No.3:  We can Win by danielvaldes

This strategy is another variation on the home team with poor recent home form against the trend concept that Contend UD has. But this strategy changes the odds band and tries to focus on higher odds matches. It also has a different league selection. With high Since Shard yields of 25% it only has a -19 points drawdown. That is quite low for a 30% win rate strategy. Its All Results drawdown is still just -27 points from a 29% win rate.

Yield No.4-10:  

Yield No.4. Awful Home Team – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 39 of 111 leagues by twsystem1bm

Yield No.5. Awful Home Team – Negative Exclusion (2022-10-25) 73 of 111 leagues by twsystem1bm

This strategy and the one following it have exactly the same selection filters but have different league selection methods. The selection filters are similar to 3rd placed  We can Win which are based on Contend UD but excluding lower odds games.

The interesting part comes from the league selection methods, named Positive and Negative Inclusion. The Positive Inclusion method is where you start with no leagues selected and only add in leagues that meet your criteria. Negative Exclusion is where you start with all leagues selected and then only exclude leagues that clearly do not meet your criteria. This ends up meaning that leagues that do not have enough data to confirm that the filters work or not tend not to be added to the Positive Inclusion set, but do get left in for the Negative Exclusion set. With these two strategies, the Positive Inclusion strategy only includes leagues with 5%+ yields and 20+ bets. So any leagues with less than 20 bets do not get selected. This led to only 39 of 111 leagues being selected. The Negative Exclusion version only exclude leagues under 5%+ yields and 20+ bets. This means that even loss-making leagues with under 20 bets of data remain in the selected league list. The concept being that we do not have enough data to justifiably say that this league does not work well for these filters. In this case it ends up with 73 leagues of the 111 being selected. In terms of performance, Positive Inclusion had slightly higher yields of 21.06% versus Negative Exclusion’s 18.96% yields. But Negative Exclusion has much higher profit for the same period of time with +38.49 points versus +24.43 points for Positive Inclusion. This suggests that the Negative Exclusion version is better in this case. It adds support to the idea that if there is not enough data to prove the filters do not work well for that league, then it risks missing out on profit by excluding those leagues. The Positive Inclusion method has a lower drawdown and since it focusses only on leagues where the trend has more data to prove it works, it seems the safer choice. So we can make a selection based on lower risk versus faster profits from a higher volume of bets.

Yield No.6 Gana local – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 42 of 111 leagues by twsystem1bm

This strategy, as the name suggests, uses a Positive Inclusion method for the Yield 10th place Gana Local strategy filters. And we also found a Negative Exclusion version of this strategy made at the same time.

The Positive Inclusion version included leagues with +2% yields and 15+ bets. (42 leagues)

The Negative Exclusion version excluded leagues with under 2% yields and 15+ bets. (78 leagues)

It is not known what method the original Gana Local league choices were based on. (20 leagues)

By comparing these 3 versions over the same time period we see that the Positive Inclusion version has had the best results. It made +27 points with a 18.53% yield and low drawdown of just -11.57.

With both Gana local – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 42 of 111 leagues and Awful Home Team – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 39 of 111 leagues showing solid results, it adds weight to the Positive Inclusion method may be the safer version.

But with this method it is important to update strategies periodically to make sure that leagues stay within the required parameters to be included. As more data gets added to the database, some leagues may need removing and others may need adding.

All 3 of these strategies are against the trend style based on backing a home team with poor form.

Yield No.7 championnat nul b2 2019 by nirnouta50

This strategy is completely different to many of the top strategies. It looks at the head-to-head records of the team and makes its draw selections based on that.

It has many plus points that make us recommend this strategy to be added to your set. Firstly, its win rate of 32% is consistent from its All Results period and Since Shared period. This suggests a consistent trend has been found. Secondly, the yield also remains at similar levels in the All Results and Since Shared period. This suggests the strategy is not the result of data mining or overfitting. Its trend has continued for 179 bets since researched. Thirdly, the filters look at head-to-head results and hom win odds, but the bet is on the draw market. This is quite different to other top performing strategies, so if this strategy is added to your portfolio, it spreads risk by reducing the chances of one market’s bad run affecting all your strategies. For example, if you are mainly following home underdog strategies, if those underdogs have a bad month, then many of the strategies following that concept will have bad results. This strategy gives a good opportunity to diversify your portfolio.

Yield No.8 Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) by Betaminic

2023 has been a difficult year for some Over 2.5 goal strategies such as Colossus 06, but this version of the Colossus 05 has survived the year and actually made +9 points profit in 2023.

It only uses 6 leagues, so its league selection is using the Positive Inclusion style of only adding in leagues with enough data to prove their trend. The filters are balancing between against the trend but also a betting concept that teams that are slight favourites at home against a low scoring away team so the 2-1 is seen as the likely result.

Yield No.9 championnat nul d6 by nirnouta A

This is another strategy that looks at head-to-head results, but uses different odds ranges. So it is entirely possible to follow both this championnat nul d6 and championnat nul b2 2019. One of them is looking at slight home favourites and the other where the is no strong favourite home or away. Both of them are backing the draw.

Yield No.10 Gana Local by hank2182

This strategy inspired Gana local – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 42 of 111 leagues and was analysed above.

Top 10 by Maximum Drawdown

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites (twsystem1bm) Home Win 4 141 4 1.48 6.61 4.69 -6.45 -7.64
2  Sayar's Under 2.5 (A1) (SayarKyaw) Under 2.5 goals 34 228 6 1.82 25.54 11.20 -10.87 -11.43
3  TOM WHITAKER BSG 02 Goal Variance Overs (twsystem1bm) Over 2.5 goals 3 120 4 2.06 6.91 5.76 -10.54 -11.73
4  OVER 2. (Dave3310) Over 2.5 goals 37 257 20 2.13 33.18 12.91 -9.90 -12.48
5  UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ (GrandEkinoks) Under 2.5 goals 3 367 7 1.99 11.45 3.12 -13.36 -13.36
6  BANKER?? (Dave3310) Home Win 27 648 29 1.34 25.62 3.95 -8.54 -13.94
7  Colossus 01 Home Dog (Betaminic) Home Win 68 125 2 2.97 36.28 29.02 -14.13 -14.13
8  e2 (JOSE ANTONIO) Favourite 16 374 6 2.33 35.26 9.43 -14.19 -14.19
9  Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) (Betaminic) Over 2.5 goals 100 361 10 2.09 50.19 13.90 -14.55 -14.55
10  x 4 + (luisbang) Over 2.5 goals 5 406 9 2.00 17.12 4.22 -14.90 -14.90

 This year’s drawdown top 10 is very interesting because 7 of the top 10 from last year are STILL in the top 10 this year.

Max. Drawdown No.1: TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites by twsystem1bm (No.1 last year)

This strategy backs the home favorite when the home & away teams have good scoring averages within a specific range. The away team goal average pushes the home odds up slightly. The high win rate of 72% is part of the reason why its all results max drawdown is just -7.64. In the since shared period, the worst run was -6.45 points. For users who like low odds, high win rates and low drawdowns, then this is an excellent strategy to follow. The only issue is the low number of picks. It made +1.21 points in 2023 from 36 picks.

Max. Drawdown No.2:  Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by SayarKyaw (No.2 last year)

 

Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by User SayarKyaw backs the under 2.5 goal bet in matches where the away team is the favourite and the away team also has a good defensive record with 0-1 or 0-2 expected. Since the home team knows they are the underdogs, if they do get a goal, they will likely hang onto their 1-0 lead and play defensively, even settling for a 1-1 if the away side do equalize. This is a match with many under 2.5 goal scenarios. After 228 bets it boasts an 11.2% yield with just a -11.43 maximum drawdown over the past 10 years. It made +10.6 points last year from 44 picks. The high win rate and low drawdown make it a good strategy to follow. Looking at the monthly results we see that after a 3-month losing run in September, October, November 2022, it then went on a strong 6 month consecutive winning streak and only had 2 losing months in 2023. This shows the importance of sticking with strategies and looking at their bet number and not months to judge performance. Also, if you have a trend that you like and are monitoring, then after a losing run is a good time to start following it since it is likely you will catch the positive variance as the strategy returns to its long term trend level.

Max. Drawdown No.3:  TOM WHITAKER BSG 02 Goal Variance Overs by twsystem1bm

This strategy tries to ride the short term variance of teams scoring at home, if they didn’t score last time, the over 2.5 odds may get raised by a market expecting another under 2.5 goals result.

It has just has a losing run in September and October that suggests now may be a good chance to follow this strategy and catch its positive variance, similar to the opportunity we had with Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) last year.

 

Max. Drawdown No.4 OVER 2. by Dave3310

This is an edited version of Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04). It follows more leagues and gets 20 picks per month versus the 10 of the original strategy. Dave3310 is a veteran Betaminic user and when his strategies rise to the top of the rankings they are worth paying attention to. In a tough year for Over 2.5 goal strategies, this version managed to make +5.75 points profit from 161 picks with a 49% win rate! This strategy usually has a win rate of 56%, so it has done very well to stay profitable in the face of an unusually low number of over 2.5 goal results this year.

 

Max. Drawdown No.5 UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ by GrandEkinoks (No.3 last year)

UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ by User GrandEkinoks is an under 2.5 goals backing strategy that looks to bet against the very short term trend of over 2.5 goals in a match that is expected to have under 2.5 goals. This simple but effective strategy has a drawdown of just -13.36 that came in its Since Shared period. This is very low for a 57% win rate strategy. This strategy was also in the top 10 low drawdowns in 2021 and 2022 and has kept its place.

 

Max. Drawdown No.6 BANKER?? by Dave3310 (No.5 last year)

BANKER?? (Dave3310) has the same settings as his “FAV.” Strategy that was 4th last year in the drawdown ranking, but applies it to fewer leagues. This version has about 28 bets per month, but “FAV.” has about 37 bets per month. “FAV.” produces more profit. These strategies will have overlapping bets, so it is best to pick one of them to follow and BANKER?? seems to be the better of the two. BANKER?? made +15.92 points profit in 2023 from 459 bets and a78% win rate. It looks like an excellent strategy to follow.

Max. Drawdown No.7 Colossus 01 Home Dog by Betaminic (No.2 in 2023 by yield)

Colossus 01 Home Dog is a very unusual strategy in that it has been heavily filtered down to the point where its all results bet data only has 236 bets from 11 years. Usually we would worry that this is over filtering and the data not enough to be meaningful, but this strategy has continued to defy expectations and produced high yields in the 5 years since it was share. This strategy first appeared in the book Winning Betting Systems which had a set of 21 strategies called the Colossus 21. An updated version of this strategy was shared called 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues where the exact same filters were applied to all 111 leagues in the database. It still only produces 6 picks per month, but more than the original strategy which has found a very specific vein of value in the market.

Max. Drawdown No.8 e2 by JOSE ANTONIO (No.6 in 2022 by Low Drawdown)

e2 (JOSE ANTONIO) backs the favourite, usually the home team, when they are not odds on but have above average home form against an away team that is not a superpower. It catches home teams at decent above evens prices and keeps an amazing -14.19 Max Drawdown despite a 53% win rate and average odds of 2.32. Its +9.43% yield after 374 bets makes it a good strategy to consider.

Max. Drawdown No.9 Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) by Betaminic (No.7 in 2022 by Low Drawdown)

Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) (Betaminic) has the same strategy settings as ALL LEAGUES Over 2.5 against trend / TODAS las LIGAS Más 2.5 contra tendencia (Updated 2021-10-20), but only uses 6 leagues. It has just focused on the highest yielding leagues and has managed to find a high yielding trend of +13.9% after 361 bets. The drawdown is a very low -14.55 points, so it is a very suitable for the most conservative bettors.

Max. Drawdown No.10  x 4 + by luisbang (No.8 in 2022 by Low Drawdown)

This over 2.5 goals backing strategy was shared in August 2019 and has been running for over 4 and a half years. While it did have long flat patches, its overall trajectory was upward, but in 2023 it made a loss of 7 points. IF this trend is still working then 2024 could see an opportunity for profit as it returns to its long term trend. Its -14.9 maximum drawdown came in its Since Shared period which means it has experienced its worst run since it was shared, however even that was just -14.9 points. This is extremely low considering its 57% win rate. A +4.22% yield from 406 bets shows a decent ROI level. It looks for games where the draw is not expected and goals are also expected. Neither team has had a long run of not scoring, so the fixture is framed nicely for goals.

Top 10 by Betaminic Rating

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) (Betaminic) Over 2.5 goals 100 361 10 2.09 50.19 13.90 -14.55 -14.55
2  TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home (twsystem1bm) Home Win 99 173 5 3.83 56.25 32.51 -10.30 -33.00
3  Colossus 01 Home Dog (Betaminic) Home Win 68 125 2 2.97 36.28 29.02 -14.13 -14.13
4  Contend UD (Misbe91) Home Win 58 1,290 27 3.59 126.00 9.77 -33.24 -33.24
5  Funger Over 2,5 - 1 (Funger78) Over 2.5 goals 44 319 14 2.08 37.24 11.67 -10.19 -19.89
6  Empate Equipos igualados (jc_lc) Draw 42 477 23 3.03 63.85 13.39 -25.90 -48.88
7  OVER 2. (Dave3310) Over 2.5 goals 37 257 20 2.13 33.18 12.91 -9.90 -12.48
8  Vitória do mandante com dos alta (Pablodanieldias) Home Win 37 968 27 3.54 98.77 10.20 -33.32 -33.32
9  Pro6 Against the Trend Overs v2 (Updated 2020-07-15) (Betaminic) Over 2.5 goals 36 460 13 2.08 42.85 9.32 -15.92 -17.82
10  Sayar's Under 2.5 (A1) (SayarKyaw) Under 2.5 goals 34 228 6 1.82 25.54 11.20 -10.87 -11.43

The Betaminic rating is a way we try to show that A) the strategy is in profit since it was created and shared, and also B) how likely the strategy is based on a real trend and not just a lucky good run. In complicated terms, the rating is connected to a strategy’s “p-value”. The P-Value is calculated based on a series of indicators, such as the number of bets, yield, average odds among others. In simple terms, the higher the rating, the better. The highest rating possible is 100.

Betaminic Rating No 1: Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04)  (No.2 by Betaminic rating in 2022)

 

Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04)  made +9.91 points profit in 2023 from 74 bets with a yield of 13.39% with a 54% win rate. This is very close to its All Results ROI of 11.32% from a 55% win rate. It is also close to its Since Shared ROI of 13.9% from a 55% win rate. That level of consistency is why this strategy is rated so highly. It only uses 6 leagues, so its league selection is using the Positive Inclusion style of only adding in leagues with enough data to prove their trend. The filters are balancing between against the trend but also a betting concept that teams that are slight favourites at home against a low scoring away team so the 2-1 is seen as the likely result. It ha a low drawdown of -14.55 in its All Results period. It fully justifies its rating of 100.

 

Betaminic Rating No.2: TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home by twsystem1bm

 

TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home by user twsystem1bm is top of the yields and number 2 in the Betaminic rating rankings. It has settings very similar to Contend UD, the number one ranked strategy by profit. The difference is that this strategy cuts out very strong odds-on home prices and also uses fewer leagues. The yield of +32% after 173 bets I very impressive. The drawdown is a -33 in its all results period and has a decent win rate of 40%. The profit graph looks like it is moving upwards in jumps and then flat periods. The next jump looks to be coming soon.

 

Betaminic Rating No.3: Colossus 01 Home Dog

 

Colossus 01 Home Dog is a very unusual strategy in that it has been heavily filtered down to the point where its all results bet data only has 236 bets from 11 years. Usually we would worry that this is over filtering and the data not enough to be meaningful, but this strategy has continued to defy expectations and produced high yields in the 5 years since it was share. This strategy first appeared in the book Winning Betting Systems which had a set of 21 strategies called the Colossus 21. An updated version of this strategy was shared called 2023 Colossus 01 Home Dog V2 All Leagues where the exact same filters were applied to all 111 leagues in the database. This strategy is also making profit with high yields but has not reached the 100 bet mark in the since shared data set to appear in this top 10 list. It still only produces 6 picks per month, but more than the original strategy which has found a very specific vein of value in the market.

 

Betaminic Rating No.4:  Contend UD by user Misbe91

Contend UD is Number 1 this year for profit. It has continued its trend and has added +42 points to its total profit in 2023. Its maximum drawdown was -28.04 in December 2022, but that has increased slightly to -33.24. Despite that slight increase in MDD, its yield improved from +9.09% to 9.77%. Despite having a poor 2 months recently, this is one of the best performing and most consistent public strategies available. There are several variations of the core filters of this strategy and the against the trend idea behind this strategy keeps finding value picks. The low win rate of 35% can be a bit tough to follow for some, but the results make it a strategy to be considered very seriously. In its Since Shared history it has never had 3 losing months in a row, so January looks like a perfect time to start following this strategy and catch its return to form.

This home win strategy was shared in May 2020 and has been running for over three and a half years. You can login to the Betamin Builder to see the exact strategy filters, but this strategy’s basic core idea is to back home teams that have not won in the medium term form for a while at home. This is an against the trend strategy. It goes against the crowd. It does not bet on the obvious choice looking at the recent form. But as suggested in this article by one of our users who is an ex-sportsbook employee, the public market often pushes down the odds of the obvious choices that follow the trend, meaning the unpopular bets rise in value above their fair odds. This s where we can capitalize on the opportunity and get value odds. This method has led to a stunning 9% yield after 1,290 bets. That is a very significant data of bets to get confidence from. It is over the 1,000 bet mark. Its maximum drawdown is only -33.22 points across all its All Results history of 3,767 bets since March 2012. It has a 36% win rate and average odds of 3.59 which means it needs discipline to follow since more than 50% of bets will be losers. You really have to understand the meaning of value betting to be able to follow this strategy. Despite a win rate of 36%, the odds being offered on these matches are equivalent to a win rate lower than 36%, so the longer we keep betting on this trend, the more chance we will get results similar to the long-term trend of +9% ROI. If we look at the monthly P/L we can see there are winning and losing months, sometimes 2-3 months of flat results and then a few big profit months. This really shows the need for discipline with value betting. You need to make a plan to follow this strategy long term. If you follow it for 25 bets, it is pure luck if you will make a profit or not. If you follow it for 100 bets, you have much more chance of getting results nearer to the trend, and if you follow it for 1,000 bets, you will have the best possible chance of getting the same results as this strategy has if the trend continues. Rather than thinking of time in terms of how many months you need to follow this strategy, it is better to think of time in terms of number of bets. You need to follow this strategy for over 500 bets to reasonably expect to achieve similar trend line results. This strategy has been running since 2020 and has been high on the ratings table many times. It truly is a worthy profit champion for 2023. We highly recommend adding this to your set of strategies for 2024.

 

Betaminic Rating No.5 Funger Over 2,5 – 1 by Funger78

5th by yield in 2022, this strategy has been running for a long time and continues to give good results with a decent rating of 44. Funger Over 2,5 – 1 is a very impressive over 2.5 goals strategy that has 11.67% yield after 319 bets. It looks for games close to evens for the over 2,5 goals bet, but where the home team is the favourite, and then adds in a touch of against the trend by looking for home and away teams with recent under 2.5 goals form.

Betaminic Rating No.6: Empate Equipos igualados by jc_lc

This draw backing strategy has charged up the ratings chart with some strong results. It has similar good points to Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) in that its All Results period and Since Shared period have similar win rates and yields. This suggests that it is a consistent strategy whose trend is not showing a lot of volatility since it was shared.

It has about 23 bets per month, and would take about 2 years to reach the 500 bet level. In the 2 years since it was shared it has made 62.85 points profit from 478 bets, so 40 EUR level stakes would have made 2,514 EUR profit. The 395 EUR Gold Pick Package of 500 picks would have lasted 2 years and left over +2,000 EUR in profit. A 100-point bank with 40 EUR stakes would be 4,000 EUR. At its worst low in that 2-year period it would have gone down -1,036 EUR from its previous peak of +160 EUR but then gone on a winning run until its current profit level of +2,500 EUR. In this way we can use past data to make a plan to follow a strategy for 500-1,000 bets in order to give it a chance to repeat its trend. We can use past data to see our entry and exit points. Past data does not guarantee future results, but we can at least make a plan based on that trend continuing. The win rate and yield consistency of this strategy makes it very appealing.

 

Betaminic Rating No.7:  OVER 2.by Dave3310

This strategy is also No.4 in the drawdown ranking. This is an edited version of Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04). It follows more leagues and gets 20 picks per month versus the 10 of the original strategy. Dave3310 is a veteran Betaminic user and when his strategies rise to the top of the rankings they are worth paying attention to. In a tough year for Over 2.5 goal strategies, this version managed to make +5.75 points profit from 161 picks with a 49% win rate! This strategy usually has a win rate of 56%, so it has done very well to stay profitable in the face of an unusually low number of over 2.5 goal results this year.

 

Betaminic Rating No.8:  Vitória do mandante com dos alta by Pablodanieldias (No.2 by Profit in 2023)

Vitória do mandante com dos alta is a variation of the core filters of 1st place Contend UD, but the filters are different enough for it to count as a separate strategy. This user has reduced the odds range being covered and also changed the leagues being selected from the 111-league database. In this way, duplicating and changing the filters of existing public strategies is a good way to get used to the Betamin Builder and also sometimes find improved versions of existing strategies. This edited version has manged a slightly better yield of +10.20% with a similar drawdown. It also managed to make December 2023 a winning month instead of a losing month that Contend UD had. It is worth noting that from May 2021 to April 2022, the strategy had a very unconvincing run with a long slow decline and then a jump up and another slow decline. In terms of time it looks like 12 months of pain, but in that time the strategy would have only produced about 330 bets.  For value betting, it is important to follow a trend for 500-1,000 bets to give it the best chance to reproduce its trend. When you make a plan to follow a strategy, plan to follow it for a number of bets, not a time period.

 

Betaminic Rating No.9:  Pro6 Against the Trend Overs v2 (Updated 2020-07-15)

This strategy backs over 2.5 goals in matches where the home team has played matches with under 2.5 goals in their last 1 or 2 games overall, and where the away team has had matches with under 2.5 goals in the last game or more overall. This strategy uses the same filters as Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) but used a 6 year Research Period and a 2 year Test Period when creating the strategy. (RP6 TP2 BD50) It uses 10 leagues instead of that strategy’s 6 leagues. With the original version on a rating of 100, then that one is probably the better one to follow.

 

Betaminic Rating No.10: Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by SayarKyaw

This under 2.5 goals strategy looks for away favourites that score goals and concedes few in a game with few goals expected. The stage is set for a 0-1 or 0-2 kind of result. Betting on few goals in a game, just like betting on draws, is not as popular as other selections, and this can add to the value of these unloved bets.

 

Top 10 by Data (Number of bets in the Since Shared period)

Strategies researched using the Betaminic database are based on historical data. The more data, the more evidence we have to support a trend. Once a trend has been researched and shared, the “Since Shared” results are very important to tell us if the trend is continuing and also if the trend is continuing with similar yields, win rates and drawdowns. In this sense, the profitable strategies with the most bets in their Since Shared period could be considered the more consistent and trustworthy ones. This year the rankings by big data are interesting in that 8 of the ten are all draw betting strategies. The suggests there may be long-term value to be found in the slightly more unpopular draw bet selections.

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  Golden6.4 – Missing Draws (Betaminic) Draw 8 2,694 51 3.16 92.45 3.43 -50.67 -54.29
2  Colossus 10 Away Dog Draw (Betaminic) Draw 6 2,399 25 3.81 84.14 3.51 -72.77 -72.77
3  Getting draws to 34%+ (Adebola) Draw 7 2,054 52 3.04 73.50 3.58 -47.32 -62.65
4  Missing Draws- All Leagues (Maxi) Draw 11 1,961 67 3.15 88.87 4.53 -37.05 -55.56
5  Draw, both teams scored (McMcDonald) Draw 10 1,858 30 3.38 88.63 4.77 -41.24 -41.24
6  Not home on. (Adebola) Home Win 7 1,636 36 4.20 79.37 4.85 -80.26 -80.26
7  on s 'inspire du c6 de 2019 sans le head to head (nirnouta A1) Draw 7 1,567 67 3.35 65.94 4.21 -35.72 -59.73
8  Home king (AugustinVidic) Home Win 10 1,513 42 3.66 83.57 5.52 -55.66 -55.66
9  Mid Table Team (Maxi) Draw 10 1,449 44 3.20 73.55 5.08 -55.09 -55.09
10  Tough Away Team - All Leagues (Maxi) Draw 5 1,330 40 3.20 47.25 3.55 -54.98 -54.98

Big Data No.1: Golden6.4 – Missing Draws by Betaminic

 

This draw strategy did not make a profit for its first 3 years Since Shared, but since March 2022 it has taken off. It looks for matches without a clear favourite, with few goals expected and no draws in recent form for the home team. In this way it is looking for unexpected draws. The All Result period win rate is 34%, leading to an ROI of 7.94%. The Since Shared win rate is lower at 33% leading to a reduced ROI of 3.39%. It has just had 2 losing months after a 10 consecutive winning months, so it could be a good time to start following this one. But note that the drawdown of -54 points is larger than other top strategies. But the major plus point for this strategy is that is has made 3.39% ROI after 2,698 bets Since Share. That is a lot of data to support its trend. With 51 picks per month on average, it could reach 600 bets in 12 months. If the average trend repeats itself, it could make 48 points over the next 12 months.

 

Big Data No.2: Colossus 10 Away Dog Draw by Betaminic (Big Data No1  in 2022)

This draw strategy looks for slight way underdogs in a game where goals are expected. While it does have a very high drawdown of -72.77, it does have 2,411 bets to support its +3.41% yield Since Shared. It has also had long periods of being unprofitable, but not as long as Big Data No.1: Golden6.4 – Missing Draws. For Colossus 10 Away Dog Draw, it had a 1 year losing run from July 2020, but from May 2021 it began to return to profit. It is currently on a losing run since March 2023losing -25 points from its 100-point peak. The thousands of bets of data support the trend, but it will need a good long term plan and the willpower to follow it in order to take advantage of this trend.

 

Big Data No.3: Getting draws to 34%+ by Adebola (Big Data No.2 in 2022)

This draw strategy again looks for matches with no clear favourite, but this time looks for games with few goals expected. It has a lower drawdown than the previous two. Its name suggests the aim is to get a draw strategy with a win rate of 34%, and it does manage to achieve this. The All Results win rate is 34% after 7,300 bets and the Since Shared win rate is 34% after 2,059 bets. That is rally good consistency that you can build a system around. Compared to the previous 2 draw strategies, it is a generally rising profit chart with volatile ups and downs along the way.

One important thing we can take away from these strategies with many bets in their data sets is that yields of 3-4% look attainable and realistic after thousands of bets. There is a volatile up and down of winning and losing runs, and the drawdowns can be quite large, but there is much support to show these trends continuing.

 

Big Data No.4: Missing Draws- All Leagues by Maxi

This strategy is very interesting because it uses the exact same filters as Big Data No.1: Golden6.4 – Missing Draws but applies them to all 111 leagues in the database. This lowers the All Results yield slightly to +6.5% but overall profit increases due to the higher volume of bets. When a strategy works across all leagues, it really suggests that it has found a global trend in the market. The drawdown is still high at -55, but of the 3 draw strategies so far, this onlooks the most trustworthy since it works across all leagues and has nearly 2,000 bets in its Snice Shard period to confirm this trend is continuing.

  

Big Data No.5: Draw, both teams scored by McMcDonald (Big Data No.3 in 2022)

Draw, both teams scored by User McMcDonald backs the draw in games where the team are good at scoring goals, so a score draw can be expected. Backing the 1-1 or 2-2 in the correct score market adds another opportunity to add value to the strategy picks. This strategy has been going for over 5 years and has kept a 4.6% yield after 1,864 bets. Any strategy that gets past the 1,000 bet mark with yields over 4% is a significant achievement.

 

Big Data No.6: Not home on. by Adebola (Big Data No.5 in 2022)

Not home on. This home team backing strategy was shared in August 2020 and has been running for over three a half years. It has made +85 points profit in that time after 1,639 bets with a 5.19% yield. It basically backs underdogs at home with poor recent form when they play an away team that isn’t a super strong favourite in terms of long term away form. This ends up with betting on higher than normal home odds and can have longer losing runs as a result of natural variance. Its low 28% win rate gives it a lower hit rate than draw betting. This strategy produces an average of 36 bets per month which is an easy amount to manage. It is worth noting that this strategy has a drawdown of -80 points which is very high and it may be better following other less volatile strategies.

 

Big Data No.7: on s ‘inspire du c6 de 2019 sans le head to head by nirnouta A1

This strategy looks for weak home favourites to back the draw in. It has a high drawdown near -60, but has an impressive 4.2% yield after 1,577 bets in its Since Shared period.

 

Big Data No.8: Home king by AugustinVidic (Big Data No.10 in 2022)

Home King is 8th in the profits table, too. It is one of the few non-draw strategies in this top 10 big data strategies. It backs home teams with poor recent form. It has a high drawdown of -55, but that seems to be normal for these strategies that have thousands of bets under them. It has nearly 6,000 bets in its All Results period and 1,500 bets in it Since Shared period.  Its Since Shared yield is a very impressive +5.34% which beats the other draw strategies above. It had big losses in September and October but seems to be coming backup now.

 

Big Data No.9: Mid Table Team by Maxi (Big Data No.8 in 2022)

This draw backing strategy looks for mid table teams where there is no obvious favourite and the under 2.5 goals selection is strongly odds on. The 5% yield after 1,450 bets is very respectable. It has been running since April 2021 and is still going well.

 

Big Data No.10: Tough Away Team – All Leagues by Maxi

This draw strategy works across all 111 leagues. It looks for weak home favourites in games with few goals expected. It has +3.47% yield after 1,331 bets in its Since Shared period.

 

Overall Top 10

wdt_ID Strategy (User Name)  Bet Type Rating SS Bets SS Av.Picks/Month SS Av.Odds SS P&L SS Yield SS MaxDD AR MaxDD
1  OVER 2. (Dave3310) Over 2.5 goals 37 257 20 2.13 33.18 12.91 -9.90 -12.48
2  Contend UD (Misbe91) Home Win 58 1,290 27 3.59 126.00 9.77 -33.24 -33.24
3  Home king (AugustinVidic) Home Win 10 1,513 42 3.66 83.57 5.52 -55.66 -55.66
4  BANKER?? (Dave3310) Home Win 27 648 29 1.34 25.62 3.95 -8.54 -13.94
5  Empate Equipos igualados (jc_lc) Draw 42 477 23 3.03 63.85 13.39 -25.90 -48.88
6  Missing Draws- All Leagues (Maxi) Draw 11 1,961 67 3.15 88.87 4.53 -37.05 -55.56
7  TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites (twsystem1bm) Home Win 4 141 4 1.48 6.61 4.69 -6.45 -7.64
8  Sayar's Under 2.5 (A1) (SayarKyaw) Under 2.5 goals 34 228 6 1.82 25.54 11.20 -10.87 -11.43
9  Colossus 01 Home Dog (Betaminic) Home Win 68 125 2 2.97 36.28 29.02 -14.13 -14.13
10  championnat nul b2 2019 (nirnouta50) Draw 8 179 12 3.66 27.32 15.26 -20.51 -34.95

There are a lot of good strategies highlighted in this article, and it can be hard to know which ones to follow. So we have condensed them down into a final overall ranking of which strategies have performed the best over multiple categories. The filters and core concepts behind each of these strategies also provide an interesting starting point for future research and development of even better strategies for users who like to research their own private strategies.

Overall No.1: OVER 2. by Dave3310

This is an edited version of Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04). It follows more leagues and gets 20 picks per month versus the 10 of the original strategy. Dave3310 is a veteran Betaminic user and when his strategies rise to the top of the rankings they are worth paying attention to. In a tough year for Over 2.5 goal strategies, this version managed to make +5.75 points profit from 161 picks with a 49% win rate! This strategy usually has a win rate of 56%, so it has done very well to stay profitable in the face of an unusually low number of over 2.5 goal results this year.

Overall No.2: Contend UD by user Misbe91

Contend UD was No1 last year and is still Number 1 this year for profit. It has continued its trend and has added +42 points to its total profit in 2023. Its maximum drawdown was -28.04 in December 2022, but that has increased slightly to -33.24. Despite that slight increase in MDD, its yield improved from +9.09% to 9.77%. Despite having a poor 2 months recently, this is one of the best performing and most consistent public strategies available. There are several variations of the core filters of this strategy and the against the trend idea behind this strategy keeps finding value picks. The low win rate of 35% can be a bit tough to follow for some, but the results make it a strategy to be considered very seriously. In its Since Shared history it has never had 3 losing months in a row, so January looks like a perfect time to start following this strategy and catch its return to form.

This home win strategy was shared in May 2020 and has been running for over three and a half years. You can login to the Betamin Builder to see the exact strategy filters, but this strategy’s basic core idea is to back home teams that have not won in the medium term form for a while at home. This is an against the trend strategy. It goes against the crowd. It does not bet on the obvious choice looking at the recent form. But as suggested in this article by one of our users who is an ex-sportsbook employee, the public market often pushes down the odds of the obvious choices that follow the trend, meaning the unpopular bets rise in value above their fair odds. This s where we can capitalize on the opportunity and get value odds. This method has led to a stunning 9% yield after 1,290 bets. That is a very significant data of bets to get confidence from. It is over the 1,000 bet mark. Its maximum drawdown is only -33.22 points across all its All Results history of 3,767 bets since March 2012. It has a 36% win rate and average odds of 3.59 which means it needs discipline to follow since more than 50% of bets will be losers. You really have to understand the meaning of value betting to be able to follow this strategy. Despite a win rate of 36%, the odds being offered on these matches are equivalent to a win rate lower than 36%, so the longer we keep betting on this trend, the more chance we will get results similar to the long-term trend of +9% ROI. If we look at the monthly P/L we can see there are winning and losing months, sometimes 2-3 months of flat results and then a few big profit months. This really shows the need for discipline with value betting. You need to make a plan to follow this strategy long term. If you follow it for 25 bets, it is pure luck if you will make a profit or not. If you follow it for 100 bets, you have much more chance of getting results nearer to the trend, and if you follow it for 1,000 bets, you will have the best possible chance of getting the same results as this strategy has if the trend continues. Rather than thinking of time in terms of how many months you need to follow this strategy, it is better to think of time in terms of number of bets. You need to follow this strategy for over 500 bets to reasonably expect to achieve similar trend line results. This strategy has been running since 2020 and has been high on the ratings table many times. It truly is a worthy profit champion for 2023. We highly recommend adding this to your set of strategies for 2024.

 

Overall No.3: Home king by AugustinVidic

The strategy by profit is another home bet strategy. This is also an against the trend style strategy. It backs home teams that have not won in terms of very short-term form when they are playing an away team that has not lost in their very recent form. It also looks for home teams in a very narrow band of odds. It is possible that there may be some very limited overlapping between this strategy and the Contend UD strategy, but due to their filters it is likely that both strategies will produce a lot of separate picks. So it is okay to follow both of these strategies at the same time. The big differences between these two strategies is that Home King is looking at the very recent form of both the home and away team and limiting that to a narrow band of home win odds, whereas the previous Contend UD only looks at the home team medium term form with a much a wider range of home win odds. An aspect that both of these strategies have is that they are against the trend style in their core logic. We again see that to beat the market we must think in a different way to the general public. Another plus point of this strategy is that its winning and losing months seem much more evenly spread out. It has a decent 5% yield after 1,513 bets. Those are very strong numbers that we can have true confidence in. The drawdown is -55, so it has more volatility than the previous Contend UD strategy. The Since Shared win rate is lower at 31%. We recommend both strategies, but if we had to pick one, it would be Contend UD due to its lower drawdown.

 

Overall No.4: BANKER?? by Dave3310

Overall No.5: Empate Equipos igualados by jc_lc

Overall No.6: Missing Draws- All Leagues by Maxi

Overall No.7: TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites by twsystem1bm (

Overall No.8: Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by SayarKyaw

Overall No.9: Colossus 01 Home Dog

Overall No.10: championnat nul b2 2019 by nirnouta50

Where do I start? How can we use this information? – Multi-Strategy Systems

No strategy makes a profit every month. They all have winning and losing months, but if we use a combination of strategies together in a portfolio of sports betting strategies, then we can reduce dependence on one strategy and spread risk. In the long term all these top strategies have shown that they make profit. If we put them together into a multi-strategy system, we can smooth out the monthly results and have fewer losing months. For this reason, even with the high profit strategies, it is wiser to use them as part of a multi-strategy system.

Betaminic has an aggregator function where we can put strategies together and see what the results are like. We can see how the yield, average odds, win rate, drawdown would change and how the monthly profits look. Next we have put the top strategies from the different categories into aggregated multi-strategy systems. You can see the results below. Decide what your priority is: profit, yield or low drawdowns. Then, you can use these grouped systems as they are or start adding strategies to your own multi-strategy system from the rankings above.

High Profit System

Here 4 of the top 10 by profit strategies have been put together to create a profit focused system.

Profits No.1 Contend UD by Misbe91

Profits No.4 Missing Draws- All Leagues by Maxi

Profits No.5 Draw, both teams scored by McMcDonald

Profits No.8 Home king by AugustinVidic

This set of 4 strategies uses about 166 picks per month and aims for +15 points per month on level stakes. The combined max drawdown is -52.58 The monthly performance looks very strong. While not eliminating losing months, there are many occasions with consecutive months of profit. This is a very strong profit focussed set. Due to the 53-point drawdown, a 100-point bank is recommended. With 166 picks per month on average, the 1,000 bet mark could be reached in 6 months. If the strategies repeat their historical trends then it can aim for +90 points in 6 months. 20 EUR level stakes would aim for 1,800 EUR profit, while 40 EUR stakes would aim for 3,600 EUR. Past results do no guarantee future profits, but they give us a better starting point than betting blind. We can make a plan with entry and exit points. For example, for this set, our exit point would be if the bank reaches 1.5 times the Maximum Historical Drawdown of -53 points, so 1.5 x 53 = about -80 points. Our other exit or withdrawal point would be the 1,000 bet mark when we can re-evaluate the set and consider which strategies to use for the next 1,000 bets.

High Yield System

Here 7 of the top 10 by yield strategies have been put together. This is to create a yield focused system.

Yield No.1 TOM WHITAKER BSG 09 Very Poor Home by twsystem1bm

Yield No.2 Colossus 01 Home Dog by Betaminic  

Yield No.4 Awful Home Team – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 39 of 111 leagues by twsystem1bm

Yield No.6 Gana local – Positive Inclusion (2022-10-25) 42 of 111 leagues by twsystem1bm

Yield No.7 championnat nul b2 2019 by nirnouta50

Yield No.8 Colossus 05 Against the Trend Overs AL (Updated 2020-07-04) by Betaminic

Yield No.9 championnat nul d6 by nirnouta A

The high yield strategies have less picks per month than the profit strategies, so even putting 7 of them together only needs 64 picks per month on average This gives an overall yield of about 21% and has a similar drawdown to the profit set with -47 points. Due to the 47-point drawdown, a 100-point bank is recommended. With 64 picks per month on average, the 1,000 bet mark could be reached in 15 months. If the strategies repeat their historical trends then it can aim for +195 points in 15 months. 10 EUR level stakes would aim for 1,950 EUR profit, while 20 EUR stakes would aim for 3,900 EUR. Past results do no guarantee future profits, but they give us a better starting point than betting blind. We can make a plan with entry and exit points. For example, for this set, our exit point would be if the bank reaches 1.5 times the Maximum Historical Drawdown of -47 points, so 1.5 x 47 = about -70 points. Our other exit or withdrawal point would be the 1,000 bet mark when we can re-evaluate the set and consider which strategies to use for the next 1,000 bets.

Low Drawdown System

Here 9 of the top 10 by low maximum drawdown strategies have been put together to create a lower drawdown focused system.

Max. Drawdown No.1 TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites by twsystem1bm (No.1 last year)

Max. Drawdown No.2 Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by SayarKyaw (No.2 last year)

Max. Drawdown No.3 TOM WHITAKER BSG 02 Goal Variance Overs by twsystem1bm

Max. Drawdown No.4 OVER 2. by Dave3310

Max. Drawdown No.5 UNDER MİN 2 YENİ STRATEJİ by GrandEkinoks (No.3 last year)

Max. Drawdown No.6 BANKER?? by Dave3310 (No.5 last year)

Max. Drawdown No.7 Colossus 01 Home Dog by Betaminic (No.2 in 2023 by yield)

Max. Drawdown No.8 e2 by JOSE ANTONIO (No.6 in 2022 by Low Drawdown)

Max. Drawdown No.10  x 4 + by luisbang (No.8 in 2022 by Low Drawdown)

These 9 strategies need about 87 picks per month and produce a healthy 10% yield while keeping a low max drawdown of -30 which is very good for 9 strategies combined. The 65% win rate will make it an easy set of strategies to follow with most bets coming out as winners. Due to the 30-point drawdown, a 50-point bank is recommended. With 87 picks per month on average, the 1,000 bet mark could be reached in 12 months. If the strategies repeat their historical trends then it can aim for +100 points in 12 months. 20 EUR level stakes would aim for 2,000 EUR profit, while 40 EUR stakes would aim for 4,000 EUR. Past results do no guarantee future profits, but they give us a better starting point than betting blind. We can make a plan with entry and exit points. For example, for this set, our exit point would be if the bank reaches 1.5 times the Maximum Historical Drawdown of -30 points, so 1.5 x 30 = about -45 points. Our other exit or withdrawal point would be the 1,000 bet mark when we can re-evaluate the set and consider which strategies to use for the next 1,000 bets.

Best of 2023 System

In this set, we put together 10 of our top strategies together.

Overall No.1: OVER 2. by Dave3310

Overall No.2: Contend UD by user Misbe91

Overall No.3: Home king by AugustinVidic

Overall No.4: BANKER?? by Dave3310

Overall No.5: Empate Equipos igualados by jc_lc

Overall No.6: Missing Draws- All Leagues by Maxi

Overall No.7: TOM WHITAKER BSG 05 Scoring Teams Home Favourites by twsystem1bm (

Overall No.8: Sayar’s Under 2.5 (A1) by SayarKyaw

Overall No.9: Colossus 01 Home Dog

Overall No.10: championnat nul b2 2019 by nirnouta50

This large multi-strategy set produces around 232 picks per month with a yield of about 10% giving an average monthly profit target of about 22 points. Despite including 10 strategies, it only has a drawdown of -55 points which is quite acceptable for so many strategies being used together.  Betting 1 point per pick would work for this set. The monthly results show a reasonably stable performance in 2023 and indeed for most of its history. This is a great example of how several strategies can be used together to smooth out individual strategy ups and downs. Due to the 55-point drawdown, a 100-point bank is recommended. With 232 picks per month on average, the 1,000 bet mark could be reached in 5 months. If the strategies repeat their historical trends then it can aim for +110 points in 5 months. 20 EUR level stakes would aim for 2,200 EUR profit, while 40 EUR stakes would aim for 4,400 EUR. Past results do no guarantee future profits, but they give us a better starting point than betting blind. We can make a plan with entry and exit points. For example, for this set, our exit point would be if the bank reaches 1.5 times the Maximum Historical Drawdown of -30 points, so 1.5 x 55 = about -83 points. Our other exit or withdrawal point would be the 1,000 bet mark when we can re-evaluate the set and consider which strategies to use for the next 1,000 bets.

In conclusion, Betaminic has many strategies that have been running for a long time and have a profitable pedigree supported by many bets in their data set. By looking at the “Since shared” view on the strategies page and looking at the Betaminic ratings, we can see the real winning betting strategies. From there we can choose those strategies that match our betting style and spread risk in multi-strategy systems to have fewer losing months and better profits in the future.

Which strategy set will you choose for 2024?

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