The over / under 2.5 market is very popular among bettors and not with a lack of reason. Its odds generally close to two make it very attractive and easy to follow. In this article we discover a winning strategy for this market with excellent results. Do you want to discover how to get the best out of over 2.5 bets? Find out below.

CLICK HERE to see a new enhanced version of this strategy: “Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend 2.0”

First of all, what is Betaminic? Betaminic is a website that has a free online tool called Betamin Builder for analysing soccer statistics and historical bookmaker odds. By analysing past data of over 100,000 matches, winning patterns can be found. For example, there are some leagues where backing over 2.5 goals in certain conditions leads to profit long term. Betaminic’s tool, the Betamin Builder, allows you to find those value patterns. There is also a way to have future picks from those profitable trends emailed to you so that you can bet on them. Basically, if you can find what betting system would have made profit in the past, it gives you a promising strategy to follow in the future. You can sign up for free here and see for yourself.

Would you like to receive the picks of the strategy?

It’s very easy, you just have to follow some very simple steps:

  1. Register on our website, click here to go directly.
  2. Buy the package you want to receive the picks of the strategy. Click here to select a plan. 
  3. Access our Betamin Builder tool.
  4. Go to “Public Strategies” in the Main Menu.
  5. Activate the option to receive the Picks by clicking on the email icon, which you will find to the right of the strategy “Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia”.
  6. You don’t have to do anything else. You will start receiving the picks in your email account as soon as the games fulfill the conditions of the strategy (check your SPAM folder).

If you have any doubts about the process, you can watch the video tutorial that we have prepared to follow the public strategies. Click here to access the tutorial.

Description of the System

The average odds for the bet type “Over/Under 2.5 goals” for most games is even; that means, odds usually set around 2.00 (1/1) for each bet, without deducting the fee or commission for the bookmaker. Regarding the probability, that implies about 50% chance. Following this statement, we can think that after three games in a row finished under 2.5 goals, the market odds for the fourth match to end over 2.5 goals could be higher than their real value, influenced by a recent streak. The system wants to take advantage of those odds (more information about this concept by clicking here)

The concept of this strategy is based on the break of that streak and taking advantage of overvalued odds due to the existing streak. We search teams where the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded), and the opponent team with the same condition, the last three games ended under 2.5 goals too.

Therefore, the target of this betting system is to search games where both teams with the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded). If that condition is fulfilled, we place an Over 2.5 goals bet in the fourth match.

We want to prove if that argument is strong enough to build a strategy, not considering other factors, such as line-ups or other variables, into account.

As we did with the last strategy “Bet on the Underdog at home”, for this kind of system, we decided not to filter or remove any league from the results. Some competitions could be deleted from this strategy to make a higher profit, but we want to show you the results for all the leagues we have collected data.

System Parameters

These are the filters or conditions used for this system:

  • Leagues. We have tested this system with 22 leagues.
  • Odds. Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, pre-match.
  • Seasons. From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.
  • Date range. From July 2012 to 30/11/2016.
  • P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals, when the conditions are fulfilled.
  • Home Team conditions. The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Away Team conditions.  The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).
  • Odds for Over 2.5 goals. Odds must be included in the interval 1.70 – 2.40.
  • The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places an Over 2.5 bet on the fourth match.
  • Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 16% after 472 bets matched in the strategy.
Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%

Discover 8 new profitable football betting systems based on Big Data clicking here!!!



Table #1. Analysis of the results by League

Over 2.5 System Results - League Analysis -

The system obtains a positive result, a 16% yield after 472 bets during more than four years. As you can check, the system is profitable for most of the football leagues tested. Only four leagues have negative results for this study: Bundesliga, Premier League, England league one and the Scotland Championship.

For this betting system, we obtain a 55 % ratio of winning bets.

Total betsRatio
Bets Won25855%
Bets Lost21445%

You should consider all these factors explained above before taking a decision. If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.

You can display the chart of the leagues:

 

Table #2. Analysis of the results by Odds range

Over 2.5 System Results - Odds range -

If we analyse the results by odds range, we can confirm that the system works for every interval, where the highest profit is made from 2.00 to 2.40, with 183 bets and a profit of +51.15, that means about 28% yield. Each interval has a consistent profit; that means that those odds fit for the strategy.

In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.

 

Table #3. Detail of the football games included in the strategy 

Here you can find the detail of all the past football games that fulfil with the filters and conditions of the betting system.

Football Matches included in the Over 2.5 System

This chart shows the progress of the results by date.

Conclusions

As you can check, this system makes a profit for most of the leagues and the period tested. This strategy is based 100% on statistical data. As we have mentioned many times, this kind of strategies are studied with historical data; nobody can be sure this system will continue making profits in the future.

If you look closely at the chart, you can realise the profits increase slowly, but gradually. Here, the system doesn’t have a long negative streak, so the drawdown for the period studied seems not hard to face. But we cannot assure it will continue that way in the future. Most of the betting systems suffer a negative streak; that’s something you have to get used to if you want to succeed in the world of the sports betting.


To expand information, we want to comment two interesting Tweets received regarding The Underdog System.

One Tweet from Joseph Buchdahl @12xpert.

We agree with him; perhaps the data were not significant enough to build a strategy, but we still think that may be an indication of a pattern to trace, so we decided to follow the system and see the results for this season. Thanks Joseph for your comments, we really appreciate it.

 

 

For those who might be unfamiliar with the p-value concept, here you can find a brief explanation: The P-value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H0) of a study question is true – the definition of ‘extreme’ depends on how the hypothesis is being tested. P is also described in terms of rejecting H0 when it is actually true, however, it is not a direct probability of this state.

P > 0.10
No evidence against the null hypothesis. The data appear to be consistent with the null hypothesis.
0.05 < P < 0.10Weak evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
0.01 < P < 0.05
Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.
0.001 < P < 0.01
Strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the
alternative.
P < 0.001
Very strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.

The P-value for that strategy was 0.035 (1-in-28), that means that if you have a silly monkey making bets for you with the same conditions, 1 of 28 times the monkey will succeed making a profit for you, or in other words, that stupid monkey has a probability of 3.5% of making a profit placing bets within that conditions, if the monkey is lucky. This is a moderate evidence indicating the system could not be a simple matter of luck.

For the Over 2.5 Betting system, the P-value is under 0.001 (P-value=0.0003), wich means we have a very strong evidence that the results for this system are not a matter of only luck.

We received another interesting Tweet from Thomas Loridan @teouchanalytics. Thanks Thomas for your Tweet.

Most of the time, we have a theoretical idea for a system to develop, and then we test it. We hardly ever do the other way round, it would be a really hard work. We are committed to publishing all the systems tested by us, if we consider them attractive to the audience, although they are not profitable at all, as the Draw Betting System we posted time ago.

 

If any of you have a system in mind, but you don’t have the tools to test that strategy, please contact us via the contact form.

Thanks, Joseph and Thomas for your valuable inputs on this subject.

As we usually advise, we recommend you not to pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.

As we said before, if you want to propose a particular betting system to be analysed, please send us an email to support@betaminic.com or using our contact form, we will be glad to help you.

Would you like to receive the Picks of this strategy?

It’s very easy, you just have to follow some very simple steps:

  1. Register on our website, click here to go directly.
  2. Buy the package you want to receive the picks of the strategy. Click here to select a plan. 
  3. Access our Betamin Builder tool.
  4. Go to “Public Strategies” in the Main Menu.
  5. Activate the option to receive the Picks by clicking on the email icon, which you will find to the right of the strategy “Over 2.5 against the trend / Más 2.5 contra tendencia”.
  6. You don’t have to do anything else. You will start receiving the picks in your email account as soon as the games fulfill the conditions of the strategy (check SPAM folder).

If you have any doubts in the process, you can watch the video tutorial that we have prepared to follow the public strategies. Click here to access the tutorial.

Discover 8 new profitable football betting systems based on Big Data clicking here

Check Betaminic Public Strategies here

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