Corner Betting Strategies: 5 Data Driven Systems for Football
Corners betting is an area where data can give you a real edge.
It is one of the markets where data is much more important compared to other football betting. You can know instinctively that Man City have a good chance against Newcastle, but how many corners are likely to be in the match? For that, we have to look at football statistics. The Betlamp tool from Betaminic.com has the latest corners data in easy to view, sort and save charts and tables.
First, what kind of corners bets are there?
The most common corners bet is on how many corners there will be in total in the game. We can bet on the exact number or more commonly, if the number of corners will be over or under a certain level. Other variations are how many corners the home or away team will get separately. Even more variations include betting how many corners there are in each half and which team will get more corners, If you have the data and check the bookmakers that offer extensive corners bets, there can be a chance to find value.
Below we can see an example of the corner bets that Betfair offer.
More corner markets offered by Betfair Sportsbook:
|wdt_ID||Total Match Corners||Total Home Corners||Total Away Corners||Other Corner Bets|
The over/under 9.5 or 10.5 corners could be compared to the over/under 2.5 goals market in terms of being the common midway point where in matches with no previous data we might consider it a 50-50 coin toss.
What corner data does Betaminic offer?
There are 2 main ways to get corner data with Betaminic.
1 The Betaminic statistics page
You can easily sort and rank teams to find the corner kings and misers. You can sort through all teams from 54 leagues together in the tables, or view them at a glance by league in the charts.
In the corners tables you can set filters of minimum/maximum number of games need for a team to be included in the table (1) and then you can click on column headers to sort the data (2) and see the top ranked teams for corners in the market that you want. In a matter of seconds we can easily find teams with a high corner expectancy.
In the corners charts, we can see leagues at a glance. Corners for and against are color coded to make it easy to see immediately teams that push and get corners and teams that sit back and get peppered by shots.
2 The Betlamp Tool
Betlamp allows you to set specific filters so that you can find not just teams that have high or low corners expectancy but also the next fixtures that they have and also the corners data for their opposition.
The main advantage is that you can get emails that alert you to upcoming fixtures that match your filters. You can set up to 50 different alerts and this means you can combine a number of different filters based on the statistics. In this way you can always be ready for value opportunities without wasting anytime on the data crunching research side.
For example, in the screenshot below, we set the data to “Over/Under Corners FT GAME” and the market to “OU 9.5 Game” (1). Then we set our focus (league, home team or away team), and the time frame, game min/max limit and % required filters (2). Then we can see the upcoming fixtures that match these filters (3). We can save this alert, and new alerts will be emailed to us as future fixtures come up that match these filters.
You can set up multiple alerts to find fixtures that get highlighted for a number of key statistics.
5 Strategies to Use with Corner Betting
Strategy 1: Use Betlamp to find Over 10.5 corner bet selections
Step 1: Go to the Betlamp tool and find teams and their fixtures with a history of high corner counts. For example you could look for home teams with +75% of games being over 10.5 this season with more than 10 games having been played. You could also look for away teams with +50% of games being over 10.5 corners. You could add supporting alerts that look for teams with 100% of matches this season being over 8.5 corners. You can add supporting alerts as you see fit.
Step 2: Check on odds comparison sites to find corner bets with the highest odds. (e.g. oddschecker.com) See which bookmaker has mispriced the market, It takes a long time to check each bookmaker and not every bookmaker offers odds on corner bets. So being able to see corner bets at a glance can be very time saving and you can also quickly spot which bookmaker is mispricing the market higher than others.
Strategy 2: Use Betlamp to find under 9.5 corner bet selections.
Step 1: Go to the Betlamp tool and find teams and their fixtures with a history of low corner counts.
Step 2: Check on odds comparison sites to find the highest odds for that bet to see which bookmaker has mispriced the market.
Strategy 3: Be the bookmaker on betting exchanges for minor fixtures
Step 1: Go to the Betaminic Statistics page and find teams with a history of high corner counts.
Step 2: Check on odds comparison sites if there are few or no odds offered for those matches. Bookmakers sometimes don’t even bother with corner odds for less popular markets such as Serie B or the Australian A-league. This lack of supply means that if you offer odds on a betting exchange, you become the market. Punters who do not have the data that you see will have a take it or leave it option with your odds. You can set your odds by your experience of the corners market comparing Betlamp statistics to existing bookmaker odds and then reduce the odds to add in your profit margin. Also, by offering odds, they should show up on some odds comparison sites that include Betfair exchange prices and people looking to bet on that market may take your margin adjusted odds.
Strategy 4: In-Play bets in 2nd half when the home favorite is losing.
Step 1: Go to the Betlamp tool and find teams with a history of high corner counts. Also, find teams with strong home form with a second alert using Match Odds 1X2 data and alerts.
Step 2: If the home team is losing at the 60 minute mark. Back the over x.5 corners bet that is near evens as it is likely there will be much home pressure by a corner positive team.
Step 3: If the corners count is less than expected, at the 85 minute mark, back the Asian over 1 corner bet. This means you lose if there are no corners after the 85 minute mark, get your stake returned if there is 1 corner, and win if there are 2 or more corners. You can often get 1.8+ odds for this bet. This is good value if the favorite is losing and pushing hard for an equalizer.
Step 4: If the home team is still losing at the 90m mark. Back the over 0.5 corners bet from that point. There are only a few minutes left in the game, but the odds are usually generous and the home team will be throwing the kitchen sink at the opposition.
Strategy 5: Double Stakes if Key Factors give you an edge
When your own extra knowledge suggests corners, double the stake.
A) Is the keeper of either team a known “puncher” who prefers to punch rather than catch balls?
B) Do either team play the wings and cross in from the sides? More chance of looping crosses being knocked out for a corner than teams that play on the ground and like to cut inside.
C) Does either team have a tall central defender that often gets up high to head behind those looping crosses?
D) Are the teams of a similar level? This means they are more likely to play openly and take more chances.
E) Are either of the team’s strikers or midfielders known for their long shots or free kicks? If they take more long shots, there are more chances of balls being pushed behind.
Points of caution
A) Avoid cup games, internationals and other one-off friendly matches. Teams may change their usual tactics and play differently. So data driven bets are not as effective. League matches are best for data due to the consistency of competition and other variables.
B) If strong favourites score in the first 15 minutes but are not known for running up high scores, it may be wise to trade out or cash out the corner bet as the home team may not push as hard with the lead having been taken so early.
Find value in Corners betting
Corners betting is not a major market for bookmakers. Many punters consider it a “fun” bet. There is not a huge volume of betting on it. So the bookmakers do not put as much effort into perfecting their odds models as they do with Match Odds 1X2 bets and other major markets. Because of this, some bettors consider this to be a weak area for the bookies and a chance to beat them with big data. Sign up for free and get a limited view of the Betlamp tool now, or get a premium package for full access to all the data including the ability to download the data to a spreadsheet.