One of the betting markets that is growing the most in popularity lately is the “Draw No Bet”. In this article we analyze in detail what this type of bet consists of, and how to obtain high profitability by betting on this market. Read on to find out how to beat the bookies!
What is the “Draw No Bet” betting market?
It is a market that removes the draw in the final 1×2 result of a bet, you can bet on either the local victory or the away victory, and if the games ends in a draw, the amount bet is refunded, and the bet it is neither won nor lost. It is a way of taking less risk betting on the victory of the home or away team, since the game ends in a draw, the total bet is not lost. In this table you can see how it works in a simpler way:
Let’s analyze this market taking as an example the Champions League game between Manchester City and Real Madrid, whose odds published on Bet365 are as follows:
If we bet € 10 on the victory of Manchester City, we would obtain € 3 of net profit (€ 13 – € 10) in case of victory, if the match ends in a draw they return the € 10 bet, and if Real Madrid wins, we lose the € 10 bet.
You have to be very careful with the odds offered by the bookmakers, since many times selecting the option “Draw No Bet” is not always the best option. Betting on the victory of Manchester City we can see where we would get the best odds.
- We bet directly on the type of bet “Draw No Bet”, the odds available at Bet365is 1.30 for the victory of Manchester City.
- We can also select the Asian Handicap 0.0, since it is equivalent to the bet type “Draw No Bet”. Depending on the odds published, it is sometimes found in the main Asian Handicap bets, or as in this case, within the Alternative Asian Handicap. The odds available is somewhat higher, 1,325.
- A last option is to bet within the main 1X2 market, one amount on the home team win and another on the draw to cover that result. This option should be placed between two different bookmakers in order to have the highest available odds. To calculate the “Draw No Bet” odds that would result when betting on the local victory and the draw, as well as to know what stake to enter for each bet, it is better to use a calculator. We have found this website where the calculation can be carried out in a simple way.
Following our example, with the 1X2 odds, if we bet on 1 and X, with odds of 1.72 and 4.20, with a stake of 10, the result is 1.3105, which is a slightly higher odds than betting directly on the “Draw No Bet “, and somewhat lower than the Asian Handicap 0.0. The amount to bet on “1” is 7.62 and on the draw or “X”, 2.38, which add up to the € 10 of our stake.
The question you are surely asking yourself is, why are the odds at the same bookie different for the same type of bet? Many times, the bookies offer different options for the same type of bets to balance their winnings, and they adjust the odds according to the money that goes into the bets in a transversal way, apart from expanding the profit margins, going unnoticed by most of the users.
Analysis of profitability by odds intervals
Home Team Odds Analysis
In this table we can see the result by range of odds betting one unit on the victory of the home team, with data since 2012 and with a history of more than 133k games, taking as reference the odds of the Pinnacle Sports bookmaker.
As you can see, there is a range of odds that has been profitable, between 6.01-8.00, and looking at broader ranges, we find the interval that has generated the most profit for this betting market, specifically the interval of odds between 5.60 and 8.00.
With the free tool to invest in profitable strategies Betamin Builder, you can check the results that would have been obtained by betting on the different intervals of odds. If you are not registered, you can create an account from here, it is free. As you can see in the following screenshot, for a certain range of quotas, the Yield is close to 12%.
This information can be very useful when creating strategies, but simply betting with this criterion is very risky, and we do not recommend it.
Away Team Odds Analysis
In this case, if we look at the table, we cannot find any range of odds that has made a profit in all the historical bets for this market.
Limiting by smaller ranges, the most profitable interval of odds betting on the victory of the visiting team is located between 5.85 and 5.97.
As we have commented for the victory of the local team, these are data that do not provide a strong reason to bet on those matches, and especially in such limited samples that it is due more to data-mining than to a long-term winning pattern.
Opening Odds vs Closing Odds
As a general rule, betting early or close to the start of the match does not have an impact on the long-term results for the strategies created in Betamin Builder, as explained this in detail in this article. But if we compare the opening odds and the closing odds for the local team, draw no bet, we see that the odds have gone up on average by 1.80% with more than 130k historical matches, therefore, better odds will be achieved by betting close to the match start time. In this graph we can see the accumulated evolution.
This chart shows the average percentage change of Draw No Bet odds from their opening odds (when they were first published) to their closing odds (the last odds available before kick-off.) Both odds are from Pinnacle Sports bookmaker. A positive percentage indicates the closing odds were higher than the opening odds, therefore the odds went up.
The odds movement for the victory of the away team, draw no bet is very similar, the average closing odds also show an increase with respect to the opening odds of 2.11%.
Top 50 Profitable Teams
Below we show some tables with the 50 teams that have obtained the greatest profit, betting on the home or away victory, draw no bet. The result comes from betting a unit on these teams in all the games they have played since 2012.
Results of betting on the Home Team
Results of betting on the Away Team
This information can be very worthy when creating strategies, but it can be risky to bet on these teams without any other conditions, since we can fall into data mining. In this article we explain how to avoid data mining in Big Data betting systems.
Great Statistics tool to help you find trends
With the free statistics tool Betlamp, you can also create your alerts based on customized filters and receive by email the games that meet the established conditions, in order to find trends or patterns that help you improve your bets.
For example, you can set an alert for the Asian Handicap 0.0, which is equivalent to the “Draw No Bet” market where the home team has won at least 75% of the AH 0.0 bet of the last 8 games at home and on the other hand, the away team has won a maximum of 25% of the AH 0.0 bet, away.
Once the filters have been applied, the tool shows the matches that meet these conditions.
Recommended strategies for the “Draw No Bet” market
Below we see the Betamin Builder strategies with the best results for this market. You can see them in the public strategies section of the web or by registering for free on the web and accessing Betamin Builder.
A good option is to select the best public strategies for this betting market, sorted by Rating. Also, if you want to create a portfolio including these 5 strategies, the percentage of duplicate picks, that is, picks that are repeated in different strategies, is around 11%. As always, we recommend betting independently with the picks of each strategy. Therefore, if the same pick is received from two different strategies, what you should do is double the stake. In this way, the results will be the most similar to the strategies, always taking into account their historical results. Our results are based on a flat stake, betting one unit on each bet, but if you want to try different staking plans, we recommend an excellent software, The Staking Machine, very simple to use and that technically adapts very well to our Betamin tool Builder.
Adding the 5 best strategies for the “Draw No Bet” market, we obtain an aggregate strategy with a history close to 11000 picks and a Yield of + 12.74%. The average odds are relatively high, although we have the advantage of returning the amount bet in case of a draw result.
Conclusions
- It is a betting market that is gaining a lot of popularity lately and that allows several alternatives to bet on it, which increases the possibilities of choosing the best odds depending on the option selected.
- It is an ideal betting type for anyone who does not want to take as much risk as in the 1X2 market, and in case of a draw the bet is not lost, getting back the amount invested.
- The comparison analysis between opening and closing odds tells us that it is more profitable to bet closer to the start of the match, with an average odds increase close to 2%.
- Use our free Betlamp tool to identify winning trends and patterns.
- As you can see, there are public strategies created in the Betamin Builder tool with high profitability for this market, you can follow these strategies to create a specialized portfolio in this market.
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